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Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?

  • Chinn, Menzie D.
  • Meese, Richard A.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0022-1996(94)01334-O
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (February)
Pages: 161-178

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:38:y:1995:i:1-2:p:161-178
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  2. James M. Boughton, 1991. "Long-Run Money Demand in Large Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 1-32, March.
  3. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. " The Theory of Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 255-75.
  6. Clements, Kenneth W. & Frenkel, Jacob A., 1980. "Exchange rates, money, and relative prices: The dollar-pound in the 1920s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 249-262, May.
  7. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September.
  8. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
  9. Stock, James H, 1987. "Measuring Business Cycle Time," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1240-61, December.
  10. Stock, James H., 1987. "Measuring Business Cycle Time," Scholarly Articles 3425950, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  12. Finn, Mary, 1989. "An econometric analysis of the intertemporal general-equilibrium approach to exchange rate and current account determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 467-486, December.
  13. West, K.D., 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability: Additional Appendix," Working papers 9418, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  14. Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-34, Winter.
  15. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  16. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Tests of Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 239-260 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-68, July.
  18. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Frank Browne, 1991. "Increasing Financial Market Integration, Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 96, OECD Publishing.
  19. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  20. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
  21. Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. "Time-Varying Parameters and the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Structural Exchange Rate Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 87-97, January.
  22. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  23. Jon Faust, 1993. "Near observational equivalence and unit root processes: formal concepts and implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 447, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  25. Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-Linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 603-619.
  26. Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability, An Additional Appendix," Macroeconomics 9410003, EconWPA.
  27. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
  28. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
  29. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  30. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1982. "The Mystery of the Multiplying Marks: A Modification of the Monetary Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(3), pages 515-19, August.
  31. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
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