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Exchange Rate Risk and Convergence to the Euro

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  • Lucjan T Orlowski

    (Sacred Heart University)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new monetary policy framework for effectively navigating the path to adopting the euro. The proposed policy is based on relative inflation forecast targeting and incorporates an ancillary target of declining exchange rate risk, which is suggested as a key criterion for evaluating the currency stability. A model linking exchange rate volatility to differentials over the euro zone in both inflation (target variable) and interest rate (instrument variable) is proposed. The model is empirically tested for the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary, the selected new Member States of the EU that use direct inflation targeting to guide their monetary policies. The empirical methodology is based on the TARCH(p,q,r)-M model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Exchange Rate Risk and Convergence to the Euro," Macroeconomics 0501034, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0501034
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 34
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Evžen Koèenda & Tigran Poghosyan, 2010. "Exchange Rate Risk in Central European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 22-39, February.
    2. Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Determinants: Case of Armenia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp297, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    3. Tigran Poghosyan & Evžen KoÄenda & Petr ZemÄik, 2008. "Modeling Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Armenia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 41-61, January.
    4. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
    5. repec:eur:ejesjr:30 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Mikek, Peter, 2008. "Alternative monetary policies and fiscal regime in new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 335-353, December.
    7. Juraj Stanèík, 2007. "Determinants of Exchange-Rate Volatility: The Case of the New EU Members," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(9-10), pages 414-432, October.
    8. Bernard Walley, 2015. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk premium: evidence from South Africa," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(2), pages 382-395, April.
    9. Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Rybinski, Krzysztof, 2006. "Implications of ERM2 for Poland's monetary policy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 346-365, December.
    10. Ryan Ratcliff, 2010. "Predicting nominal exchange rate movements using skewness information from options prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 75-92.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate risk; inflation targeting; monetary convergence; euro area; new EU Member States;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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