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EMU-related News and Financial Markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

Author

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  • David Büttner

    (Philipps-University Marburg)

  • Bernd Hayo

    (Philipps-University Marburg)

Abstract

We analyse the impact of news on five financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland using a newly constructed data set in a GARCH framework. Macroeconomic shocks (on GDP, inflation rate, current account and trade balance) are constructed as deviations from expected values. EMU-related political and fiscal news is captured as news dummies. Macroeconomic shocks significantly affect short-term interest rates and, to a lesser extent, other financial variables. Political and fiscal news has an impact on long-term bond yields and exchange rates. News displayed prominently in our media sources has a greater impact on financial markets than other news and, in addition, the sources of news themselves matter. We also discover asymmetric effects of news within markets. Finally, using a pooled GARCH model we find that macroeconomic shocks have the strongest impact on financial markets in Hungary, while political news has the largest influence in both Hungary and Poland.

Suggested Citation

  • David Büttner & Bernd Hayo, 2008. "EMU-related News and Financial Markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200815, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:200815
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    Cited by:

    1. Joanna Olbrys, 2013. "Price and Volatility Spillovers in the Case of Stock Markets Located in Different Time Zones," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S2), pages 145-157, March.
    2. Joanna Olbrys, 2013. "Asymmetric impact of innovations on volatility in the case of the US and CEEC-3 markets: EGARCH based approach," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 13, pages 33-50.
    3. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2012. "Is the UAE stock market integrated with the USA stock market? New evidence from asymmetric causality testing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 273-280.
    4. Büttner, David & Hayo, Bernd, 2010. "News and correlations of CEEC-3 financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 915-922, September.
    5. David Büttner & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2012. "The impact of foreign macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 19-44, February.
    6. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Mustafa, Alan, 2016. "Testing for Financial Market Integration of the Chinese Market with the US Market," MPRA Paper 72733, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Esin Cakan & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Does U.S. News Impact Asian Emerging Markets? Evidence from Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Working Papers 201631, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; Czech Republic; Hungary; Poland; political news; macroeconomic shocks; European Monetary Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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