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The Impact of Foreign Macroeconomic News on Financial Markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland

  • David Büttner

    ()

    (Philipps-University Marburg)

  • Bernd Hayo

    ()

    (Philipps-University Marburg)

  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    ()

    (Philipps-University Marburg)

In this paper, we investigate the effects of euro area and US macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland (CEEC-3) from 1999 to 2006. Using a GARCH model, we examine the impact of news on daily returns of three-month interest rates, stock market indices, exchange rates versus the euro, and the US dollar. First, both US and European macroeconomic news has a significant impact on CEEC-3 financial markets. Second, the process of European integration is accompanied by an increasing importance of euro area news relative to US news. Third, there are country-specific differences: for example, the Czech stock market is relatively more affected by foreign news since the Copenhagen Summit in December 2002. In general, our results support the hypothesis of a deepening euro area influence on the CEEC-3 over time and a corresponding reduction in the relative importance of US shocks.

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File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/03-2009_buettner.pdf
File Function: Fourth version, 2010
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Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 200903.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:200903
Contact details of provider: Postal: Universitätsstraße 25, 35037 Marburg
Phone: 06421/28-1722
Fax: 06421/28-4858
Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/Email:


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  1. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
  3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  4. Rui Albuquerque & Clara Vega, 2009. "Economic News and International Stock Market Co-movement," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 401-465.
  5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2006. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 871, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Nikkinen, Jussi & Sahlstrom, Petri, 2004. "Scheduled domestic and US macroeconomic news and stock valuation in Europe," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 201-215, July.
  8. Evzen Kocenda & Jan Hanousek, 2010. "Foreign News and Spillovers in Emerging European Stock Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp983, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  9. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
  10. David Büttner & Bernd Hayo, 2009. "Determinants of European Stock Market Integration," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200932, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  11. David Büttner & Bernd Hayo, 2008. "EMU-related News and Financial Markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200815, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  12. Jan Hanousek & Evzen Kocenda & Ali M. Kutan, 2008. "The Reaction of Asset Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements in New EU Markets: Evidence from Intraday Data," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp349, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  13. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Ooms, Marius, 2008. "Multimodality in GARCH regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 432-448.
  14. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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