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Intraday Effect of News on Emerging European Forex Markets: An Event Study Analysis

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  • Evzen Kocenda

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic
    CES, Munich, Germany
    IOS, Regensburg, Germany)

  • Michala Moravcova

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)

Abstract

We analyze the impact of Eurozone/Germany and U.S. macroeconomic news announcements and the communication of the monetary policy settings of the ECB and the Fed on the forex markets of new EU members. We employ an Event Study Methodology to analyze intra-day data from 2011–2015. Our comprehensive analysis of the wide variety of macroeconomic information during the post-GFC period shows that: (i) macroeconomic announcements affect the value of the new-EU-country exchange rates, (ii) the origin of the announcements matters, (iii) the type of announcement also matters, (iv) different types of news (good, bad, or neutral) result in different reactions, (v) markets react not only after the news release but also before, (vi) when the U.S. dollar is a base currency the impact of the news is larger than in case of the euro, (vii) announcements on ECB monetary policy result in stronger effects than those of the Fed, and (viii) temporary inefficiencies are present on the new-EU-country forex markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Evzen Kocenda & Michala Moravcova, 2016. "Intraday Effect of News on Emerging European Forex Markets: An Event Study Analysis," Working Papers IES 2016/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2016_20
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    Cited by:

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    3. Henryk Gurgul & Jessica Hastenteufel & Tomasz Wójtowicz, 2021. "Changes in the impact of US macroeconomic news on financial markets the example of the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(4), pages 41-58, December.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2020. "Momentum effects in the cryptocurrency market after one-day abnormal returns," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(3), pages 251-266, September.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun & Viktor Oliinyk, 2020. "The Frequency of One-Day Abnormal Returns and Price Fluctuations in the FOREX," CESifo Working Paper Series 8196, CESifo.
    6. Tomáš Plíhal, 2021. "Scheduled macroeconomic news announcements and Forex volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1379-1397, December.
    7. Wen, Tiange & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2020. "Volatility connectedness in global foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange markets; intraday data; abnormal returns; event study; macroeconomic announcements; monetary policy settings; European Union; new EU members;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • P59 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Other

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