IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fau/wpaper/wp2016_20.html

Intraday Effect of News on Emerging European Forex Markets: An Event Study Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Evzen Kocenda

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic
    CES, Munich, Germany
    IOS, Regensburg, Germany)

  • Michala Moravcova

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)

Abstract

We analyze the impact of Eurozone/Germany and U.S. macroeconomic news announcements and the communication of the monetary policy settings of the ECB and the Fed on the forex markets of new EU members. We employ an Event Study Methodology to analyze intra-day data from 2011–2015. Our comprehensive analysis of the wide variety of macroeconomic information during the post-GFC period shows that: (i) macroeconomic announcements affect the value of the new-EU-country exchange rates, (ii) the origin of the announcements matters, (iii) the type of announcement also matters, (iv) different types of news (good, bad, or neutral) result in different reactions, (v) markets react not only after the news release but also before, (vi) when the U.S. dollar is a base currency the impact of the news is larger than in case of the euro, (vii) announcements on ECB monetary policy result in stronger effects than those of the Fed, and (viii) temporary inefficiencies are present on the new-EU-country forex markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Evzen Kocenda & Michala Moravcova, 2016. "Intraday Effect of News on Emerging European Forex Markets: An Event Study Analysis," Working Papers IES 2016/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2016_20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/sci/publication/show/id/5518/lang/cs
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asif, Raheel & Frömmel, Michael, 2022. "Exchange rate exposure for exporting and domestic firms in central and Eastern Europe," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    2. Henryk Gurgul & Jessica Hastenteufel & Tomasz Wójtowicz, 2021. "Changes in the impact of US macroeconomic news on financial markets the example of the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(4), pages 41-58, December.
    3. Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2025. "Intraday volatility connectedness on the forex market: the role of uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    4. Gurgul Henryk & Hastenteufel Jessica & Wójtowicz Tomasz, 2021. "Changes in the impact of US macroeconomic news on financial markets the example of the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 22(4), pages 41-58, December.
    5. Idil Uz Akdogan, 2023. "Monetary policy responses to COVID-19 in emerging European economies: measuring the QE announcement effects on foreign exchange markets," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 625-655, August.
    6. Wen, Tiange & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2020. "Volatility connectedness in global foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Tamgac, Unay, 2021. "Emerging market exchange rates during quantitative tapering: The effect of US and domestic news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. Zhou, Wen, 2023. "Did Donald Trump's tweets on Sino–U.S. Trade affect the offshore RMB exchange rate?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    9. Henryk Gurgul & Christoph Mitterer & Tomasz Wójtowicz, 2021. "The Impact of US Macroeconomic News on the Prices of Single Stocks on the Vienna Stock Exchange," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(3), pages 287-329, September.
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2020. "Momentum effects in the cryptocurrency market after one-day abnormal returns," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(3), pages 251-266, September.
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun & Viktor Oliinyk, 2021. "The frequency of one-day abnormal returns and price fluctuations in the forex," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 401-415, January.
    12. Tomáš Plíhal, 2021. "Scheduled macroeconomic news announcements and Forex volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1379-1397, December.
    13. Albrecht, Peter & Kočenda, Evžen, 2024. "Volatility connectedness on the central European forex markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    14. Kiryl Rudy, 2023. "The Exchange Rate Volatility During Political Protests: Event Study and the Case of Belarus," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(9), pages 1-37, September.
    15. Plíhal, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2021. "Modeling realized volatility of the EUR/USD exchange rate: Does implied volatility really matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 811-829.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • P59 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2016_20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.