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The impact of macroeconomic announcements on real time foreign exchange rates in emerging markets

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Abstract

This paper utilizes a unique high-frequency database to measure how exchange rates in nine emerging markets react to macroeconomic news in the U.S. and domestic economies from 2000 to 2006. We find that major U.S. macroeconomic news have a strong impact on the returns and volatilities of emerging market exchange rates, but many domestic news do not. Emerging market currencies have become more sensitive to U.S. news in recent years. We also find that market sentiment could sway the impact of news on these currencies systematically, as good (bad) news seems to matter more when optimism (pessimism) prevails. Market uncertainty also interacts with macroeconomic news in a statistically significant way, but its role varies across currencies and news.

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  • Fang Cai & Hyunsoo Joo & Zhiwei Zhang, 2009. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements on real time foreign exchange rates in emerging markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 973, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:973
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    Cited by:

    1. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Plíhal, Tomáš & Širaňová, Mária, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of bitcoin," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Ran Xiao, 2019. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Market Currencies," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5-2019, January-A.
    3. Kočenda, Evžen & Moravcová, Michala, 2018. "Intraday effect of news on emerging European forex markets: An event study analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 597-615.
    4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2018. "Exchange rates and macro news in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 516-527.
    5. Tomasz Schabek & Bojana Olgiæ Draženoviæ & Davor Mance, 2019. "Reaction of Zagreb Stock Exchange CROBEX Index to macroeconomic announcements within a high frequency time interval," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(2), pages 741-758.
    6. Kamada, Koichiro & Kurosaki, Tetsuo & Miura, Ko & Yamada, Tetsuya, 2022. "Central bank policy announcements and changes in trading behavior: Evidence from bond futures high frequency price data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    7. Tseke Maserumule & Paul Alagidede, 2017. "Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Foreign Exchange Volatility: Evidence from South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 405-429, September.
    8. Cyril May & Greg Farrell & Jannie Rossouw, 2018. "Do Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility of Returns? Some Evidence from High‐Frequency Intra‐Day South African Data," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 308-338, September.
    9. Égert, Balázs & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 73-88.
    10. Nowak, Sylwia & Andritzky, Jochen & Jobst, Andreas & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2011. "Macroeconomic fundamentals, price discovery, and volatility dynamics in emerging bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2584-2597, October.
    11. Tamgac, Unay, 2021. "Emerging market exchange rates during quantitative tapering: The effect of US and domestic news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

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    Keywords

    Foreign exchange rates; Developing countries;

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