IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets

  • Balázs Égert
  • Evžen Kočenda

We analyze the impact of macroeconomic news and central bank communication on the exchange rates of three Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies against the euro. In doing so, we first estimate standard and extended versions of the monetary model to capture deviations from the long-term monetary equilibrium. In the second stage, we employ a high-frequency GARCH model that includes accurately identified macroeconomic news, central bank communication and emerging market risk and allows for non-linear behavior as regards the deviation from equilibrium. Surprisingly, there is little support for non-linearity in the data. During the pre-crisis period (2004–2007) the major CEE currencies generally respond to macroeconomic news in an intuitive manner that corresponds to exchange rate-related theories. During the crisis (2008–2009), the responsiveness breaks down and the currencies react to news on the key economic indicator (real GDP growth). There is a lack of responsiveness to central bank communications during the pre-crisis period but all currencies react to central bank verbal interventions during the crisis. Our results show that the CEE currencies react to both macroeconomic news and central bank communications but this responsiveness differs during the pre-crisis and crisis periods. Detailed responses vary across the currencies and we conjecture that the exchange rate regime and the extent to which particular currencies are traded on the international forex market are potential explanations behind these differences.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX in its series EconomiX Working Papers with number 2012-20.

in new window

Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2012-20
Contact details of provider: Postal: 200 Avenue de la République, Bât. G - 92001 Nanterre Cedex
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Pierre L. Siklos & Martin T. Bohl, 2008. "Policy words and policy deeds: the ECB and the euro," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 247-265.
  2. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  3. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
  4. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Foreign News and Spillovers in Emerging European Stock Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 170-188, 02.
  5. Balázs Égert, 2009. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 692, OECD Publishing.
  6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 1038, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  7. Balázs Égert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," Working Papers 134, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  8. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2012. "The Indian exchange rate and Central Bank action: An EGARCH analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-72.
  9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 8959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Evzen Kocenda & Vit Bubak & Filip Zikes, 2011. "Volatility Transmission in Emerging European Foreign Exchange Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1020, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:29:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
  13. Kenneth W. Clements & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1980. "Exchange Rates, Money and Relative Prices: The Dollar-Pound in the 1920's," NBER Working Papers 0429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Gabriele Galati & Corrinne Ho, 2003. "Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(3), pages 371-398, November.
  15. Tigran Poghosyan & Evžen Kočenda & Petr Zemčik, 2008. "Modeling Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Armenia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(1), pages 41-61, January.
  16. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Horváth, Roman, 2008. "Volatility of exchange rates in selected new EU members: Evidence from daily data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 103-118, March.
  17. Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.
  18. Radovan Fiser & Roman Horvath, 2010. "Central bank communication and exchange rate volatility: a GARCH analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 25-31.
  19. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Working Paper Series 0363, European Central Bank.
  20. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "Exchange Rate Flexibility Across Financial Crises," Working Papers 2010-08, CEPII research center.
  21. Mun, Kyung-Chun, 2012. "The joint response of stock and foreign exchange markets to macroeconomic surprises: Using US and Japanese data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 383-394.
  22. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  23. LAHAYE, Jérôme & LAURENT, Sébastien & NEELY, Christopher J., . "Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2413, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  24. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2006. "Econometrics of Testing for Jumps in Financial Economics Using Bipower Variation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
  25. Péter Gábriel & Klára Pintér, 2006. "The effect of the MNB’s communication on financial markets," MNB Working Papers 2006/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  26. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
  27. Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian T & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2009. "Asset fire sales and purchases and the international transmission of financial shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Adam Gersl & Tomás Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
  29. Laakkonen, Helinä, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility, macro announcements and the choice of intraday seasonality filtering method," Research Discussion Papers 23/2007, Bank of Finland.
  30. Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, 04.
  31. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The influence of actual and unrequited interventions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 171-200.
  32. Fang Cai & Hyunsoo Joo & Zhiwei Zhang, 2009. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements on real time foreign exchange rates in emerging markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 973, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  33. Marcel Fratzscher, 2008. "Oral Interventions Versus Actual Interventions in Fx Markets - An Event-Study Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1079-1106, 07.
  34. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, 03.
  35. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-489, February.
  36. Jes�s Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "Beating the random walk in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 189-201.
  37. Edison, Hali J, 1997. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 87-100, April.
  38. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "On the long-term effectiveness of exchange rate communication and interventions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 146-167, February.
  39. Rozkrut, Marek & Rybinski, Krzysztof & Sztaba, Lucyna & Szwaja, Radoslaw, 2007. "Quest for central bank communication: Does it pay to be "talkative"?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 176-206, March.
  40. Jansen, David-Jan & De Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Talking heads: the effects of ECB statements on the euro-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361, March.
  41. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2006. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 871, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  42. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-71, December.
  43. Chen, Yu-Lun & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2010. "News announcements and price discovery in foreign exchange spot and futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1628-1636, July.
  44. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Bleaney Michael & Francisco Manuela, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Inflation and Growth in Developing Countries -- An Assessment," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-20, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2012-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Valérie Mignon)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.