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Central Bank Communication and Exchange Rate Volatility: A GARCH Analysis

  • roman Horvath

    ()

  • Radovan Fiser

We examine the effects of the Czech National Bank communication, macroeconomic news and interest rate differential on exchange rate volatility using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model. Our results suggest that central bank communication has a calming effect on exchange rate volatility. The timing of central bank communication seems to matter, too, as financial markets respond more to the communication before the policy meetings than after them. Next, macroeconomic news releases are found to reduce exchange rate volatility, while interest rate differential seems to increase it.

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File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp962.pdf
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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp962.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2009-962
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  1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  3. Jansen, David-Jan & De Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Talking heads: the effects of ECB statements on the euro-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361, March.
  4. Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2005. "Do currency markets absorb news quickly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 197-217, March.
  5. Kim, Suk-Joong & McKenzie, Michael D. & Faff, Robert W., 2004. "Macroeconomic news announcements and the role of expectations: evidence for US bond, stock and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 217-232, July.
  6. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "The timing of central bank communication," Working Paper Series 0565, European Central Bank.
  7. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
  8. Kateøina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíø, 2007. "Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 540-557, December.
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