IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000118/009908.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Señales de política monetaria y movimientos en la estructura a plazo de la tasa de interés en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Freddy H. CASTRO

    ()

Abstract

El documento evalúa el efecto del proceso de comunicación del Banco de laRepública (BR) sobre la estructura a plazo de las tasas de interés del mercadosecundario de deuda pública. Se encuentra, como resultado principal, que lacomunicación del BR es relevante en la explicación de los movimientos de lacurva de rendimientos en tramos cortos, mientras que las posibles sorpresascontenidas en la publicación del dato de crecimiento económico son relevantespara la explicación en tramos largos. La información entregada por el BR a losmercados le permite a estos últimos, generalmente, anticipar las acciones depolítica monetaria. Esta puede ser la razón por la cual, tanto el presente trabajocomo Arango et al. (2008) encuentran que los cambios de la tasa de intervencióndel emisor no son significativos en la explicación de los cambios en la curva derendimientos. Particularmente, se encuentra que los discursos en los que lasdirectivas del Banco revelan nueva información al mercado explican una parteimportante de estos cambios. En contraste, el comunicado de prensa mensual,las minutas y el Informe Sobre Inflación, por sí solos, no son significativos paraese fin.

Suggested Citation

  • Freddy H. CASTRO, 2012. "Señales de política monetaria y movimientos en la estructura a plazo de la tasa de interés en Colombia," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 009908, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000118:009908
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://colaboracion.dnp.gov.co/CDT/Estudios%20Econmicos/387.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    3. Carlos A. Huertas & Munir Jalil & Sergio Olarte & José Vicente Romero, 2005. "Algunas Consideraciones Sobre El Canal Del Crédito Y La Transmisión De Tasas De Interés En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001962, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    4. repec:bla:restud:v:57:y:1990:i:1:p:99-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Carlo Rosa, 2009. "Forecasting the Direction of Policy Rate Changes: The Importance of ECB Words," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(1-2), pages 39-66, February.
    6. Blinder, Alan S., 2007. "Monetary policy by committee: Why and how?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 106-123, March.
    7. Demertzis Maria & Viegi Nicola, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: A Framework for Communication," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, December.
    8. Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2012. "Transparency: can central banks commit to truthful communication?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009614, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    9. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Geraats, Petra M., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, March.
    10. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2008. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 175-217, June.
    11. Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2009. "The Announcement of Monetary Policy Intentions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 720, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
    13. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Look who's talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-228.
    14. Arango, Luis Eduardo & Flórez, Luz Adriana, 2008. "Tramo corto de la curva de rendimientos, cambio de régimen inflacionario y expectativas de inflación en Colombia," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(297), pages 183-210, enero-mar.
    15. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B, 1995. "Political Influence on the Central Bank: International Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(3), pages 397-423, September.
    16. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
    17. Juan Carlos Echeverry G., 1996. "The Rise And Perpetuation Of A Moderate Inflation, Colombia 1970-1991," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003621, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    18. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Giovanni Alfonso Castro Lancheros, 2010. "Relación entre variables macro y la curva de rendimientos," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007045, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    19. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2007. "The timing of central bank communication," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 124-145, March.
    20. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Nolan, Charles, 2001. "Inflation Targeting, Transparency and Interest Rate Volatility: Ditching Monetary Mystique in the U.K," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-366, July.
    21. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October.
    22. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
    23. Jorge Toro & Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Efectividad De La Intervención Discrecional Del Banco De La República En El Mercado Cambiario," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002411, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    24. Rosa, Carlo & Verga, Giovanni, 2007. "On the consistency and effectiveness of central bank communication: Evidence from the ECB," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 146-175, March.
    25. Juán Carlos Echeverry, 1998. "Summary of the Minutes of the Monetary Board, 1971, 1988," Borradores de Economia 088, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    26. Marek Rozkrut, 2008. "It’s not only WHAT is said, it’s also WHO the speaker is. Evaluating the effectiveness of central bank communication," NBP Working Papers 47, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    27. Miguel Urrutia Montoya, 2002. "Proceso de toma de decisiones para las políticas monetaria y cambiaria," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 59-63, abril-jun.
    28. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & John Jairo León & Luis Fernando Melo., 2008. "Cambios de la Tasa de Política y su Efecto en la Estructura a Plazo de Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 257-291.
    29. Andrew Clare & Roger Courtenay, 2001. "Assessing the impact of macroeconomic news announcements on securities prices under different monetary policy regimes," Bank of England working papers 125, Bank of England.
    30. Sahminan Sahminan, 2008. "Effectiveness of monetary policy communication in Indonesia and Thailand," BIS Working Papers 262, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. Reeves, Rachel & Sawicki, Michael, 2007. "Do financial markets react to Bank of England communication?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 207-227, March.
    32. Sebastián Gómez Barrero & Julián Parra Polanía, 2011. "Comportamiento estratégico de los bancos centrales al anunciar pronósticos de inflación," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 008577, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    33. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    34. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    35. Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Sensarma, Rudra, 2008. "How effective are monetary policy signals in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 169-183.
    36. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis E. Arango & Javier Pantoja & Carlos Velásquez, 2017. "Effects of the central bank’s communications in Colombia. A content analysis," Borradores de Economia 1024, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    comunicación en banca central; anuncios macroeconómicos; estructura a plazo de las tasas de interés.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000118:009908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bricelda Delgado Martínez). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.