IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Announcement of Monetary Policy Intentions


  • Giuseppe Ferrero

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Secchi

    () (Bank of Italy)


Whether a central bank should share with the public its views about the future evolution of short term interest rates is an unresolved issue. Disclosing this information might allow a more precise control of market expectations and a more effective achievement of the ultimate goals of the monetary authority. Yet, if the public do not understand the conditional nature of this forecast, it could also undermine the credibility of the central bank. We provide new evidence on the effects of this announcement on private expectations about future short term interest rates. The communication of policy intentions tends to be associated with a greater predictability of monetary policy decisions. Moreover, focussing on New Zealand, where the central bank releases interest rate projections, we find that market expectations react significantly and persistently to the unexpected part of such forecasts. Finally it emerges that the predicted component of the changes in these projections is large, suggesting that market operators understand their conditionality.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2009. "The Announcement of Monetary Policy Intentions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 720, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_720_09

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jose Miguel Benavente, 2006. "The role of research and innovation in promoting productivity in chile," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4-5), pages 301-315.
    2. Pierre Mohnen & Jacques Mairesse & Marcel Dagenais, 2006. "Innovativity: A comparison across seven European countries," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4-5), pages 391-413.
    3. Bronwyn Hall & Jacques Mairesse, 2006. "Empirical studies of innovation in the knowledge-driven economy," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4-5), pages 289-299.
    4. Bronwyn Hall, 2004. "The financing of research and development," Chapters,in: Financial Systems, Corporate Investment in Innovation, and Venture Capital, chapter 2 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Acs, Zoltan J & Audretsch, David B, 1988. "Innovation in Large and Small Firms: An Empirical Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 678-690, September.
    6. Jacques Mairesse, 2008. "Employment, innovation, and productivity: evidence from Italian microdata," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 813-839, August.
    7. Francesco Daveri & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, 2005. "Italy's Decline: Getting the Facts Right," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 64(4), pages 365-410, December.
    8. Rachel Griffith & Elena Huergo & Jacques Mairesse & Bettina Peters, 2006. "Innovation and Productivity Across Four European Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 483-498, Winter.
    9. Jacques Mairesse & Pierre Mohnen, 2005. "The Importance of R&D for Innovation: A Reassessment Using French Survey Data," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 30(2_2), pages 183-197, January.
    10. Mario Pianta & Andrea Vaona, 2007. "Innovation and Productivity in European Industries," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 485-499.
    11. Luigi Zingales & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2003. "Banks and Markets: The Changing Character of European Finance," NBER Working Papers 9595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Parisi, Maria Laura & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Sembenelli, Alessandro, 2006. "Productivity, innovation and R&D: Micro evidence for Italy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 2037-2061, November.
    13. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    14. Hans Loof & Almas Heshmati, 2006. "On the relationship between innovation and performance: A sensitivity analysis," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4-5), pages 317-344.
    15. Cohen, Wesley M & Levinthal, Daniel A, 1989. "Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 569-596, September.
    16. Tor Jakob Klette & Frode Johansen, 1998. "Accumulation of R&D Capital and Dynamic Firm Performance: A Not-So-Fixed Effect Model," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 49-50, pages 389-419.
    17. Dietmar Harhoff, 1998. "R&D and Productivity in German Manufacturing Firms," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 29-50.
    18. Gary Jefferson & Bai Huamao & Guan Xiaojing & Yu Xiaoyun, 2006. "R&D Performance in Chinese industry," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4-5), pages 345-366.
    19. Raquel Ortega-Argilés & Lesley Potters & Marco Vivarelli, 2011. "R&D and productivity: testing sectoral peculiarities using micro data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 817-839, December.
    20. Werner Bonte, 2003. "R&D and productivity: Internal vs. external R&D - evidence from west german manufacturing industries," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 343-360.
    21. Andrea Brandolini & Piero Casadio & Piero Cipollone & Marco Magnani & Alfonso Rosolia, 2007. "Employment Growth in Italy in the 1990s: Institutional Arrangements and Market Forces," AIEL Series in Labour Economics,in: Nicola Acocella & Riccardo Leoni (ed.), Social Pacts, Employment and Growth. A Reappraisal of Ezio Tarantelli’s Thought, edition 1, chapter 4, pages 31-68 AIEL - Associazione Italiana Economisti del Lavoro.
    22. Peters, Bettina & Lööf, Hans & Janz, Norbert, 2003. "Firm Level Innovation and Productivity: Is there a Common Story Across Countries?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-26, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    23. Lichtenberg, Frank R & Siegel, Donald, 1991. "The Impact of R&D Investment on Productivity--New Evidence Using Linked R&D-LRD Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(2), pages 203-229, April.
    24. Tor Jakob Klette & Samuel Kortum, 2004. "Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 986-1018, October.
    25. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Mairesse, Jacques, 1995. "Exploring the relationship between R&D and productivity in French manufacturing firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 263-293, January.
    26. Jacques Mairesse & Mohamed Sassenou, 1991. "R&D Productivity: A Survey of Econometric Studies at the Firm Level," NBER Working Papers 3666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Francis Vella, 1998. "Estimating Models with Sample Selection Bias: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 127-169.
    28. Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & John Van Reenen, 1993. "Knowledge stocks, persistent innovation and market dominance: evidence from a panel of British manufacturing firms," IFS Working Papers W93/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    29. Bruno Crepon & Emmanuel Duguet & Jacques Mairesse, 1998. "Research, Innovation And Productivity: An Econometric Analysis At The Firm Level," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 115-158.
    30. Mitali Das & Whitney K. Newey & Francis Vella, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Sample Selection Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 33-58.
    31. Baldwin, John R. & Gu, Wulong, 2003. "Participation in Export Markets and Productivity Performance in Canadian Manufacturing," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2003011e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    32. George Van Leeuwen & Luuk Klomp, 2006. "On the contribution of innovation to multi-factor productivity growth," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4-5), pages 367-390.
    33. Loof, Hans & Heshmati, Almas, 2002. "Knowledge capital and performance heterogeneity: : A firm-level innovation study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 61-85, March.
    34. Kleinknecht, Alfred, 1987. "Measuring R&D in Small Firms: How Much Are We Missing?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 253-256, December.
    35. Luuk Klomp & George Van Leeuwen, 2001. "Linking Innovation and Firm Performance: A New Approach," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 343-364.
    36. Acocella Nicola & (eds.) Riccardo Leoni, 2007. "Social Pacts, Employment and Growth (di Antonella Stirati)," Economia & lavoro, Carocci editore, issue 3, pages 162-162.
    37. Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli, 2001. "Linking Knowledge to Productivity: A Germany-Italy Comparison Using the CIS Database," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 293-317, September.
    38. repec:crs:wpaper:9833 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1984. "Tobit models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 3-61.
    40. Bronwyn H. HALL & Raffaele ORIANI, 2004. "Does the Market Value R&D Investment by European Firms? Evidence from a Panel of Manufacturing Firms in France," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/13, European University Institute.
    41. Baldwin, John R. & Beckstead, Desmond & Caves, Richard, 2002. "Changes in the Diversification of Canadian Manufacturing Firms and Plants (1973-1997): A Move to Specialization," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2002179e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Åhl, Magnus, 2017. "How big is the toolbox of a central banker? Managing expectations with policy-rate forecasts: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 339, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    2. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal & Kot, Adam, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," MPRA Paper 10296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lars Winkelmann, 2013. "Quantitative forward guidance and the predictability of monetary policy - A wavelet based jump detection approach -," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Günes Kamber & Özer Karagedikli & Christie Smith, 2015. "Applying an Inflation-Targeting Lens to Macroprodential Policy "Institutions"," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 395-429, September.
    5. Phan, Tuan, 2013. "Should Central Banks publish interest rate forecasts? - A Survey," MPRA Paper 44676, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2013.
    6. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Acocella, Nicola, 2012. "A general theory of controllability and expectations anchoring for small-open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 397-411.
    7. Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2010. "Central bank’s macroeconomic projections and learning," NBP Working Papers 72, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    8. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2014. "Stale forward guidance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 358-361.
    9. Magdalena Szyszko, 2013. "The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 44(1), pages 33-66.
    10. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2013. "How Stale Central Bank Interest Rate Projections Affect Interest Rate Uncertainty," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79861, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Hughes Hallett Andrew & Acocella Nicola, 2013. "When Can Policy Makers Anchor Expectations? Dynamic controllability and the limits to time inconsistency," wp.comunite 0104, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    12. Hughes Hallett Andrew & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Acocella Nicola, 2013. "Central banks and economic policy after the crisis: What have we learned?," wp.comunite 0106, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    13. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Freddy H. CASTRO, 2012. "Señales de política monetaria y movimientos en la estructura a plazo de la tasa de interés en Colombia," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 009908, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    15. Kool, Clemens J. M. & Thornton, Daniel L., 2015. "How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(4), pages 303-322.
    16. Maddalena Galardo & Cinzia Guerrieri, 2017. "The effects of central bank’s verbal guidance: evidence from the ECB," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1129, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Mikael Apel & Anders Vredin, 2007. "Monetary-Policy Communication: The Experience of the Swedish Riksbank," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 499-520, December.
    18. Pierre Gosselin & Aileen Lotz & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "The Expected Interest Rate Path: Alignment of Expectations vs. Creative Opacity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 145-185, September.

    More about this item


    monetary policy; communication; interest rates;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_720_09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.