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Tramo corto de la curva de rendimientos, cambio de régimen inflacionario y expectativas de inflación en Colombia

Author

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  • Arango, Luis Eduardo

    (Banco de la República)

  • Flórez, Luz Adriana

Abstract

Taking into account the risk premium within Fisher equation and the rapid decrease of inflation in Colombia at the end of last decade we test the hypothesis of linearity for the expected inflation differentials between 6 and 12 months ahead built by assuming four different expectation mechanisms about future inflation: rational, autoregressive, static and adaptive expectations. Two sets of information are used to check the hypothesis of the Fisher effect: the return index of the official bonds traded through the Colombian Stock Market, IRTES and the cero-coupon curves. The hypothesis of linearity is rejected when expectations are forward looking. With the IRTES curve the results are those predicted by the theory regarding sing and significance. The information content of the spread of interest rates is sensitive to information set used and to the expectation mechanism.// La consideración de la prima de riesgo de inflación en la ecuación de Fisher y la rápida caída en la inflación en Colombia entre los años 1999 y 2000 nos permiten examinar la hipótesis de linealidad para los diferenciales esperados de inflación entre 6 y 12 meses adelante construidos suponiendo cuatro mecanismos de formación de expectativas de la inflación futura: expectativas racionales, autorregresivas, estáticas y adaptativas. Se emplean dos conjuntos de información para examinar la hipótesis de la existencia del efecto Fisher: el índice de rentabilidad de los títulos de endeudamiento (TES) comerciados en la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, IRTES, y la curva cupón cero. La hipótesis de linealidad se rechaza con el mecanismo de expectativas racionales. Siempre que se usa la IRTES los resultados son los que predice la teoría en signo y significación. El contenido informativo del spread de tasas de interés es sensible al conjunto de información utilizado y al mecanismo de expectativas empleado.

Suggested Citation

  • Arango, Luis Eduardo & Flórez, Luz Adriana, 2008. "Tramo corto de la curva de rendimientos, cambio de régimen inflacionario y expectativas de inflación en Colombia," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(297), pages 183-210, enero-mar.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:75:y:2008:i:297:p:183-210
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v75i297.395
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    File URL: http://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com.mx/index.php/te/article/view/395/443
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jim Day & Ron Lange, 1997. "The Structure of Interest Rates in Canada: Information Content about Medium-Term Inflation," Staff Working Papers 97-10, Bank of Canada.
    2. Robert W. Dimand, 1999. "Irving Fisher and the Fisher Relation: Setting the Record Straight," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 744-750, May.
    3. Camero G., Eduardo & Castellanos, Sara, 2002. "¿Qué información acerca de expectativas de inflación contiene la estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México?," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(275), pages 327-353, julio-sep.
    4. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    6. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March.
    7. Luis Eduardo Arango & María Angélica Arosemena, 2003. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 264, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Mishkin, Frederic S & Simon, John, 1995. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(214), pages 217-229, September.
    9. Sebastian Schich, 1999. "The information content of the German term structure regarding inflation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 385-395.
    10. Munir A. Jalil & Luis Fernando Melo, 2000. "Una Relación no Líneal entre Inflación y los Medios de Pago," Borradores de Economia 145, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2004. "Expectativas de actividad económica en Colombia y estructura a plazo: un poco más de evidencia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(47), pages 126-160, December.
    12. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March.
    13. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates: A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Papers 0836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Freddy H. CASTRO, 2012. "Señales de política monetaria y movimientos en la estructura a plazo de la tasa de interés en Colombia," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 009908, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    2. Andrés Langebaek R. & Eliana González Molano, 2007. "Inflación Y Precios Relativos En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 459, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & John Jairo León & Luis Fernando Melo., 2008. "Cambios de la Tasa de Política y su Efecto en la Estructura a Plazo de Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 257-291.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    estructura a plazo de tasas de interés; ecuación de Fisher; prima de riesgo; regímenes inflacionarios; no linealidades;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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