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Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting: Missed Targets and Anchored Expectations

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  • Tomáš Holub
  • Jaromír Hurník

Abstract

This paper focuses on the Czech Republic's first ten years of experience with its inflation-targeting regime. Under this regime, the Czech Republic has successfully achieved disinflation. However, there were two periods of substantial inflation target undershooting and economic slack, related to two episodes of sharp exchange rate appreciation. Dealing with exchange rate volatility has been a key challenge for inflation targeting in the Czech Republic. Despite the missed targets, though, the regime has been successful at anchoring the inflation expectations of analysts and firms close to the announced targets, suggesting that it has worked well as a nominal anchor for the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomáš Holub & Jaromír Hurník, 2008. "Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting: Missed Targets and Anchored Expectations," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 67-86, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:44:y:2008:i:6:p:67-86
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jaromír Hurník & Ondøej Kameník & Jan Vlèek, 2008. "The History of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic Through the Lens of a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 454-469, December.
    2. Borek Vašícek, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 71-100, September.
    3. Jarek Hurnik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2008. "The History of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic through Optic of a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 8, pages 102-116 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    4. Roman Horváth & Jakub Matějů, 2011. "How Are Inflation Targets Set?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 265-300, June.
    5. repec:mes:eaeuec:v:52:y:2014:i:4:p:32-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Akyurek, Cem & Kutan, Ali M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2011. "Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 343-355, October.
    7. Reyna Vergara González & Elías Eduardo Gutiérrez Alva, 2014. "Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-32, November.
    8. Brada & Kubíček & Kutan & Tomšík, 2015. "Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 357-376, September.
    9. Borek Vašícek, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 71-100, September.
    10. repec:mes:eaeuec:v:53:y:2015:i:5:p:357-376 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Roman Horvath, 2008. "Reasons of Undershooting the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: The Role of Inflation Expectations," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 10, pages 131-142 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    12. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
    13. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlavacek & Tomas Holub, 2008. "Basic Characteristics of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 2, pages 18-34 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    14. Roman Horváth, 2008. "Undershooting of the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: The Role of Inflation Expectations," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 482-492, December.
    15. Katerina Smidkova & Aleš Bulíø, 2008. "Hits and Misses: Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting (Introduction)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 398-405, December.
    16. Tomáš Holub, 2008. "Causes of Deviations from the CNB’s Inflation Targets: An Empirical Analysis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 425-433, December.
    17. Hamid Baghestani & Liliana Danila, 2014. "On the Accuracy of Analysts’ Forecasts of Inflation in an Emerging Market Economy," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(4), pages 32-46, July.
    18. Dzmitry Kruk, 2016. "SVAR Approach for Extracting Inflation Expectations Given Severe Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 39, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    19. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Ishak Demir, 2014. "Keep your Word: Time-varying Inflation Targets and Inflation Targeting Performance," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(2), pages 160-182, March.
    20. Tomas Holub, 2008. "Causes of Deviations of Inflation from CNB Targets: An Empirical Analysis," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 4, pages 47-56 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    21. Singleton,John, 2010. "Central Banking in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899093, May.
    22. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlaváèek & Tomáš Holub, 2008. "Inflation Target Fulfillment in the Czech Republic in 1998–2007: Some Stylized Facts," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 406-424, December.
    23. Juraj Antal & Zuzana Antonicova & Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Jarek Hurnik & Ondra Kamenik & Karel Musil & Jiri Podpiera & Lubos Ruzicka & Michal Skorepa & Katerina S, 2008. "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number 01 edited by Katerina Smidkova.
    24. Ayres, Kelly & Belasen, Ariel R. & Kutan, Ali M., 2014. "Does inflation targeting lower inflation and spur growth?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-388.

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