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Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012

Author

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  • Reyna Vergara González

    () (Profesora de tiempo completo de la Facultad de Economía, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México. Toluca, México.)

  • Elías Eduardo Gutiérrez Alva

    () (Profesor de tiempo completo de la Facultad de Economía, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México. Toluca, México,)

Abstract

Después de más de una década de operación de los objetivos de inflación, resulta relevante evaluar sus alcances en relación con las metas inflacionarias establecidas por el Banco de México, y el papel que en dicho proceso han desempeñado las expectativas como ancla nominal de los precios. De manera particular, se contrasta con qué frecuencia el banco se aleja de su objetivo y se investiga sobre la estabilización de las expectativas de inflación en un ambiente de inflación baja y estable, aunque sujeta a choques que generan presiones inflacionarias. La evaluación de estos choques sobre las expectativas de inflación se realiza a través de un modelo VAR. Además, se lleva a cabo un análisis de correlación entre las expectativas inflacionarias y sus valores efectivos, basado en la metodología Rolling Windows. Los resultados sugieren que el grado de asociación entre la inflación efectiva y sus expectativas ha disminuido en el tiempo, y que los efectos de los choques macroeconómicos sobre las expectativas, son menos intensos en el periodo de objetivos de inflación.

Suggested Citation

  • Reyna Vergara González & Elías Eduardo Gutiérrez Alva, 2014. "Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-32, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxiii:y:2014:i:2:p:1-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    política monetaria; objetivos de inflación; expectativas de inflación;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

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