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El traspaso de movimientos del tipo de cambio a los precios. Un análisis para la economía mexicana

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  • Capistrán, Carlos

    (Bank of America Merrill Lynch)

  • Ibarra, Raúl

    (Banco de México)

  • Ramos, Manuel

    (Banco de México)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the pass-through of exchange rate to different price indexes in Mexico. The analysis is based on a vector autoregressive model (VAR) using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2010. The pass-through effects are calculated by means of accumulated impulse response functions to a recursively identified exchange rate shock. The results show that the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is complete, but it declines along the distribution chain in such a way that the impact on consumer prices is below 20 percent. Moreover, we find that the exchange rate pass-through seems to have decreased substantially from 2001 onwards, which coincides with the adoption of an inflation targeting regime by Banco de México.// En este documento se analiza el traspaso de movimientos en el tipo de cambio a diferentes índices de precios en México. El análisis se basa en un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) para datos mensuales de enero de 1997 a diciembre de 2010. Los efectos del traspaso se calculan utilizando los impulsos respuesta acumulados de un choque al tipo de cambio que se identifica mediante el método recursivo. Los resultados muestran que el traspaso a los precios de las importaciones es completo, pero que el grado de traspaso disminuye a lo largo de la cadena de distribución, de tal manera que el efecto en los precios al consumidor es menor a 20%. Además, se encuentra que el traspaso a los precios al consumidor parece disminuir considerablemente a partir de 2001, lo cual coincide con la adopción del esquema de objetivos de inflación por parte del Banco de México.

Suggested Citation

  • Capistrán, Carlos & Ibarra, Raúl & Ramos, Manuel, 2012. "El traspaso de movimientos del tipo de cambio a los precios. Un análisis para la economía mexicana," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(316), pages 813-838, octubre-d.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:79:y:2012:i:316:p:813-838
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v79i316.77
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    File URL: http://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com.mx/index.php/te/article/view/77/77
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Garcés Díaz Daniel, 2016. "Changes in Inflation Predictability in Major Latin American Countries," Working Papers 2016-20, Banco de México.
    2. Covarrubias, Enrique & Hernández-del-Valle, Gerardo, 2016. "Inflation expectations derived from a portfolio model," MPRA Paper 69489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Juan Hernández, 2015. "Revisión de algunas estimaciones recientes del traspaso del tipo de cambio a los precios en México," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(78), pages 190-196, Diciembre.
    4. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2016. "Break-Even-Inflation's Decomposition in Mexico," Working Papers 2016-22, Banco de México.
    5. Tobal Martín, 2017. "Prudential Regulation, Currency Mismatches and Exchange Rates in Latin America and the Caribbean," Working Papers 2017-21, Banco de México.
    6. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices," BIS Working Papers 690, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Reyna Vergara González & Elías Eduardo Gutiérrez Alva, 2014. "Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-32, November.
    8. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "State-dependent exchange rate pass-through behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 170-195.
    9. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2016. "Nonlinear Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," Borradores de Economia 930, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Josué Fernando Cortés Espada, 2013. "An estimation of the exchange rate pass-through to prices in Mexico," Working Papers 2013-02, Banco de México.
    11. Tobal Martín & Yslas Renato, 2016. "Two Models of FX Market Interventions: The Cases of Brazil and Mexico," Working Papers 2016-14, Banco de México.
    12. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Julio Carrillo & Diego Rodríguez & Fernando Perez & Rocío Gondo & Carlos Montoro & Roberto Chang, 2017. "Financial and real shocks and the effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies in Latin American countries," BIS Working Papers 668, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    traspaso del tipo de cambio; precio de las importaciones; precios al consumidor; cadena de distribución; inflación.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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