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El traspaso de movimientos del tipo de cambio a los precios. Un análisis para la economía mexicana

Listed author(s):
  • Capistrán, Carlos

    (Bank of America Merrill Lynch)

  • Ibarra, Raúl

    (Banco de México)

  • Ramos, Manuel

    (Banco de México)

This paper analyzes the pass-through of exchange rate to different price indexes in Mexico. The analysis is based on a vector autoregressive model (VAR) using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2010. The pass-through effects are calculated by means of accumulated impulse response functions to a recursively identified exchange rate shock. The results show that the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is complete, but it declines along the distribution chain in such a way that the impact on consumer prices is below 20 percent. Moreover, we find that the exchange rate pass-through seems to have decreased substantially from 2001 onwards, which coincides with the adoption of an inflation targeting regime by Banco de México.// En este documento se analiza el traspaso de movimientos en el tipo de cambio a diferentes índices de precios en México. El análisis se basa en un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) para datos mensuales de enero de 1997 a diciembre de 2010. Los efectos del traspaso se calculan utilizando los impulsos respuesta acumulados de un choque al tipo de cambio que se identifica mediante el método recursivo. Los resultados muestran que el traspaso a los precios de las importaciones es completo, pero que el grado de traspaso disminuye a lo largo de la cadena de distribución, de tal manera que el efecto en los precios al consumidor es menor a 20%. Además, se encuentra que el traspaso a los precios al consumidor parece disminuir considerablemente a partir de 2001, lo cual coincide con la adopción del esquema de objetivos de inflación por parte del Banco de México.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXXIX (4) (2012)
Issue (Month): 316 (octubre-diciembre)
Pages: 813-838

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:79:y:2012:i:316:p:813-838
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