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State-dependent exchange rate pass-through behavior

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  • Donayre, Luiggi
  • Panovska, Irina

Abstract

We estimate a Bayesian threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) to study the relationship between exchange rate pass-through and economic activity in Canada and Mexico. Both the model comparison and the analysis of impulse–response functions provide strong evidence of a nonlinear relationship and suggest that the exchange rate pass-through is dependent on the state of the economy. In particular, the pass-through coefficient is higher when the growth rate of output is large, and this difference is statistically significant across regimes for both countries. Furthermore, the results show that the degree of pass-through is complete in the case of import prices and that it falls along the distribution chain of goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "State-dependent exchange rate pass-through behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 170-195.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:64:y:2016:i:c:p:170-195
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.02.018
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    12. M. Tiunova G. & М. Тиунова Г., 2018. "Моделирование Эффекта Переноса Валютного Курса На Цены В России // Modeling The Transfer Effect Of Exchange Rate On Prices In Russia," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(3), pages 136-154.
    13. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Sirag, Abdalla & Soon, Siew-Voon, 2017. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 247-259.
    14. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices," BIS Working Papers 690, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes & Ben Ameur, Hachmi, 2023. "Recent developments in exchange rate pass-through: What have we learned from uncertain times?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
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    17. Rhee, Hyuk-Jae & Song, Jeongseok, 2018. "Exchange Rate Pass-through, Nominal Wage Rigidities, and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 22(3), pages 337-370, September.
    18. Omer Fazil Emek & Faruk Dusunceli & Omer Doru, 2021. "Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect on Domestic Producer and Consumer Prices in Turkey," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 71(1), pages 163-190, June.
    19. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Pedro Rubiano-López & Lisseth Yaya-Garzón & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano, 2021. "Traspaso de la tasa de cambio a la inflación básica en Colombia: un análisis de parámetros cambiantes en el tiempo," Borradores de Economia 1177, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. Roberto Calero & Gabriel Rodríguez & Rodrigo Salcedo Cisneros, 2022. "Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Throught into Prices in Peru: An Empirical Application Using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-510, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    21. Gonçalves, Thallis Macedo de Assis & Cerqueira, Luiz Fernando & Feijó, Carmem Aparecida, 2023. "Pass-through of exchange rate shocks in Brazil as a small open economy," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; Bayesian analysis; Asymmetry; Threshold processes; Vector autoregression; MCMC methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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