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The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study

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  • Ilan Goldfajn
  • Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang

Abstract

The paper studies the relationship between exchange rate depreciations and inflation using a sample of 71 countries in the period 1980-1998. The main determinants of the extent of inflationary pass-through of the depreciations (appreciations) are the cyclical component of output, the extent of initial overvaluation of the real exchange rate (RER), the initial rate of inflation, and the degree of openness of the economy. The paper finds that the pass-through coefficients increase the larger is the horizon measured, with its peak at 12-months. It also finds that RER misalignment is the most important determinant of inflation for emerging markets while the initial inflation is the most important variable for developed countries. Using the estimated model, the paper predicts somewhat higher inflation than actually observed in several well-known large depreciation cases, even if one takes into account existing measures of exchange rate expectations. This suggests that policy makers should use caution when using past models to predict future inflation in the aftermath of large depreciations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Campa, Jose Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 1999. "Investment, Pass-Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 287-314, May.
    2. Feenstra, Robert C. & Kendall, Jon D., 1997. "Pass-through of exchange rates and purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 237-261, August.
    3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    4. Fisher, Eric, 1989. "A model of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-2), pages 119-137, February.
    5. Cristina T. Terra, 1998. "Openness and Inflation: A New Assessment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 641-648.
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