IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcb/wpaper/5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study

Author

Listed:
  • Ilan Goldfajn
  • Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang

Abstract

The paper studies the relationship between exchange rate depreciations and inflation using a sample of 71 countries in the period 1980-1998. The main determinants of the extent of inflationary pass-through of the depreciations (appreciations) are the cyclical component of output, the extent of initial overvaluation of the real exchange rate (RER), the initial rate of inflation, and the degree of openness of the economy. The paper finds that the pass-through coefficients increase the larger is the horizon measured, with its peak at 12-months. It also finds that RER misalignment is the most important determinant of inflation for emerging markets while the initial inflation is the most important variable for developed countries. Using the estimated model, the paper predicts somewhat higher inflation than actually observed in several well-known large depreciation cases, even if one takes into account existing measures of exchange rate expectations. This suggests that policy makers should use caution when using past models to predict future inflation in the aftermath of large depreciations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campa, Jose Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 1999. "Investment, Pass-Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 287-314, May.
    2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    3. Feenstra, Robert C. & Kendall, Jon D., 1997. "Pass-through of exchange rates and purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 237-261, August.
    4. Fisher, Eric, 1989. "A model of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-2), pages 119-137, February.
    5. Cristina T. Terra, 1998. "Openness and Inflation: A New Assessment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 641-648.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo). General contact details of provider: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.