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Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Link?

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  • Stephen Murchison

Abstract

Several authors have presented reduced-form evidence suggesting that the degree of exchange rate pass-through to the consumer price index has declined in Canada since the early 1980s and is currently close to zero. Taylor (2000) suggests that this phenomenon, which has been observed for several other countries, may be due to a change in the behaviour of inflation. Specifically, moving from a high to a low-inflation environment has reduced the expected persistence of cost changes and, by consequence, the degree of pass-through to prices. This paper extends his argument, suggesting that this change in persistence is due to a change in the parameters of the central bank's policy rule. Evidence is presented for Canada indicating that policy has responded more aggressively to inflation deviations over the low pass-through period relative to the high pass-through period. We test the quantitative importance of this change in policy for exchange rate pass-through by varying the parameters of a simple monetary policy rule embedded in an open economy, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Results suggest that increases in the aggressiveness of policy consistent with that observed for Canada are sufficient to effectively eliminate measured pass-through. However, this conclusion depends critically on the inclusion of price-mark-up shocks in the model. When these are excluded, a more modest decline to pass-through is predicted.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Murchison, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Link?," Staff Working Papers 09-29, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:09-29
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rhys Mendes, 2013. "Understanding commodity price cycles in emerging Asia and their implications for monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 67-69 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Augusto de la Torre & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Samuel Pienknagura, "undated". "Latin America’s Deceleration and the Exchange Rate Buffer : LAC Semiannual Report, October 2013," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16107, The World Bank.
    4. Aleem, Abdul & Lahiani, Amine, 2014. "Monetary policy credibility and exchange rate pass-through: Some evidence from emerging countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 21-29.
    5. Mikael Khan & Louis Morel & Patrick Sabourin, 2013. "The Common Component of CPI: An Alternative Measure of Underlying Inflation for Canada," Staff Working Papers 13-35, Bank of Canada.
    6. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "State-dependent exchange rate pass-through behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 170-195.
    7. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2013. "Time‐Varying Dynamics Of The Real Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 498-525, April.
    8. Chatri, Abdellatif & Maarouf, Abdelwahab & Ragbi, Aziz, 2016. "Pass-through du taux de change aux prix au Maroc
      [An empirical investigation of the exchange rate pass-through to prices in Morocco]
      ," MPRA Paper 71757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Transmission of monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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