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The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR

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  • Liu, Philip
  • Mumtaz, Haroon
  • Theophilopoulou, Angeliki

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to gauge the importance of foreign demand, supply and interest rate shocks on the UK economy and assess how their role has changed over time. To that end we devise a time-varying factor augmented VAR model that captures the relationship between 17 industrialised countries and the UK and accounts for any temporal evolution in this relationship. The response of UK macroeconomic variables to a foreign interest rate shock is estimated to have changed significantly since the early 1990s. International demand shocks play an important role in driving World and UK real activity, especially during the recent recession.

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  • Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.03.004
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    9. Zubarev, A. & Rybak, K., 2022. "The impact of global shocks on the Russian economy: FAVAR approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 48-68.
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    14. Takeshi Yagihashi & David D. Selover, 2017. "How Do the Trans-Pacific Economies Affect the USA? An Industrial Sector Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2097-2124, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International transmission; FAVAR; Time-varying parameters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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