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Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application

  • Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Daniel Waggoner

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Tao Zha

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

This paper develops a new and easily implementable necessary and sufficient condition for the exact identification of a Markov-switching SVAR model. The theorem applies to models with both linear and some nonlinear restrictions on the structural parameters. We also derive efficient MCMC algorithms to implement sign and long-run restrictions in Markov-switching SVARs. Using our methods, four well-known identification schemes are used to study whether monetary policy has changed in the euro area since the introduction of the European Monetary Union. We find that models restricted to only time-varying shock variances dominate other models. We find a persistent post-1993 regime that is associated with low volatility of shocks to output, prices, and interest rates. Finally, the output effects of monetary policy shocks are small and uncertain across regimes and models. These results are robust to the four identification schemes studied in this paper

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 69.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:69
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