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International inflation spillovers - the role of different shocks

Listed author(s):
  • Gregor Bäurle
  • Matthias Gubler
  • Diego R. Känzig

We analyze how the transmission of international inflation spillovers depends on the nature of the underlying shocks that drive inflation abroad. We find evidence for substantial heterogeneity in the magnitude of spillovers to domestic inflation related to the fundamental source of international price fluctuations and the corresponding monetary policy reactions. Indeed, it turns out that the relative conduct of monetary policy varies depending on the source of these price fluctuations, and so does the role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber. We show this by looking at international inflation spillovers to Switzerland through the lenses of a Bayesian structural dynamic factor model relating a large set of disaggregated prices to key macroeconomic factors. Being a small open economy with an independent monetary policy, Switzerland is a particularly suitable subject for studying the role of monetary policy in the transmission of foreign shocks. However, our results more broadly indicate that inflation spillovers need to be analyzed in a framework allowing for different transmission channels.

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Paper provided by Swiss National Bank in its series Working Papers with number 2017-07.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: 2017
Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2017-07
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  1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  2. Hałka & Szafranek, 2016. "Whose Inflation Is It Anyway? Inflation Spillovers Between the Euro Area and Small Open Economies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 109-132, March.
  3. Altansukh, Gantungalag & Becker, Ralf & Bratsiotis, George & Osborn, Denise R., 2017. "What is the globalisation of inflation?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-27.
  4. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.
  5. Malte Rieth, 2015. "Can Central Banks Successfully Lean against Global Headwinds?," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 88, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Miles Parker, 2016. "Global inflation: the role of food, housing and energy prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  7. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
  8. ATUKEREN Erdal, "undated". "Oil Prices and the Swiss Economy," EcoMod2003 330700006, EcoMod.
  9. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2015. "The shocks matter: improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Discussion Papers 43, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  10. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner, 2015. "How do Individual Sectors Respond to Macroeconomic Shocks? A Structural Dynamic Factor Approach Applied to Swiss Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(III), pages 167-225, September.
  11. Aleksandra Hałka & Jacek Kotłowski, 2016. "Global or domestic? Which shocks drive inflation in European small open economies?," NBP Working Papers 232, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
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