International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages
We document that observed international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with international and domestic input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via the global input-output network, thus generating the observed dynamics of PPI. We then compare the extent to which common global factors account for the variation in actual PPI and in the underlying cost shocks. Our main finding is that across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation. We report three additional findings: (i) the results are similar when allowing for imperfect cost pass-through and demand complementarities; (ii) PPI synchronization across countries is driven primarily by common sectoral shocks and input-output linkages amplify co-movement primarily by propagating sectoral shocks; and (iii) the observed pattern of international input use preserves fat-tailed idiosyncratic shocks and thus leads to a fat-tailed distribution of inflation rates, i.e., periods of disinflation and high inflation.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2017|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1994. "Bayes inference in regression models with ARMA (p, q) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 183-206.
- Raphael A. Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2017.
"The Globalisation of Inflation: The Growing Importance of Global Value Chains,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
6387, CESifo Group Munich.
- Raphael Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2017. "The globalisation of inflation: the growing importance of global value chains," BIS Working Papers 602, Bank for International Settlements.
- Auer, Raphael & Borio, Claudio & Filardo, Andrew J, 2017. "The globalisation of inflation: the growing importance of global value chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 11905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Auer, Raphael & Borio, Claudio & Filardo, Andrew J., 2017. "The Globalisation of Inflation: the Growing Importance of Global Value Chains," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 300, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
- Ariel Burstein & Christopher Johann Kurz & Linda Tesar, 2004. "Trade, Production Sharing and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 522, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Linda Tesar & Ariel Burstein & Chris Kurz, 2005. "Trade, Production Sharing and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," 2005 Meeting Papers 304, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ariel Burstein & Christopher Kurz & Linda Tesar, 2008. "Trade, Production Sharing, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 13731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Emi Nakamura & JÃ³n Steinsson, 2012. "Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3277-3316, December.
- Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2009. "Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market," NBER Working Papers 15359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- JaeBin Ahn & Chang-Gui Park & Chanho Park, 2016. "Pass-Through of Imported Input Prices to Domestic Producer Prices; Evidence from Sector-Level Data," IMF Working Papers 16/23, .
- Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
- Jordan, Thomas J., 2016. "The impact of international spillovers on Swiss inflation and the exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 262-265.
- Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
- Nikhil Patel & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates at the Country-Sector Level," NBER Working Papers 20236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin R. Mandel & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2014. "Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 156-206, April.
- Gagnon, Etienne & Mandel, Benjamin R. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2012. "Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through," International Finance Discussion Papers 1040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 12 Dec 2012.
- Tommaso Monacelli & Luca Sala, 2009. "The International Dimension of Inflation: Evidence from Disaggregated Consumer Price Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 101-120, 02. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23246. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.