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Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Author

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  • Etienne Gagnon
  • Benjamin R. Mandel
  • Robert J. Vigfusson

Abstract

A large body of empirical work has found that exchange rate movements have only modest effects on U.S. inflation. However, exchange rate pass-through may be underestimated because some price changes are missed when constructing price indexes. We investigate downward biases that arise when items exit or enter the U.S. import price index. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics microdata we find that, although potentially large in theory, the empirical biases are modest over typical forecast horizons. As such, the empirical evidence continues to support the conclusion that pass-through to U.S. import prices is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin R. Mandel & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2014. "Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 156-206, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:156-206
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.2.156
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Barthélémy Bonadio & Andreas M Fischer & Philip Sauré, 2020. "The Speed of Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 506-538.
    2. A. Auer, Raphael & Chaney, Thomas & Sauré, Philip, 2018. "Quality pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 87-102.
    3. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.
    4. Etienne Gagnon & David López-Salido & Jason Sockin, 2017. "The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular, and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3229-3242, October.
    5. Olivier de Bandt & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2014. "Does nominal rigidity mislead our perception of the exchange rate pass-through?," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-36, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Raphael A. Auer, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005–08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1617-1650, December.
    7. Mina Kim, & Deokwoo Nam, & Jian Wang & Jason Wu,, 2013. "International Trade Price Stickiness and Exchange Rate Pass-through in Micro Data: A Case Study on US-China Trade," Working Papers 467, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    8. M. Tiunova G. & М. Тиунова Г., 2018. "Моделирование Эффекта Переноса Валютного Курса На Цены В России // Modeling The Transfer Effect Of Exchange Rate On Prices In Russia," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(3), pages 136-154.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-576 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin R. Mandel & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2014. "Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 156-206, April.
    11. Nicholas Li & Gee Hee Hong, 2013. "Market Structure and Cost Pass-Through in Retail," Working Papers tecipa-470, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    12. Raphael A. Auer & Andrei A. Levchenko & Philip Sauré, 2019. "International Inflation Spillovers through Input Linkages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 507-521, July.
    13. Roberto Rigobon & Brent Neiman & Alberto Cavallo, 2013. "Product Introductions, Currency Unions, and the Real Exchange Rate," 2013 Meeting Papers 1357, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Mikael Carlsson, 2017. "Microdata Evidence on the Empirical Importance of Selection Effects in Menu‐Cost Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1803-1830, December.
    15. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    16. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2016. "Quality, trade, and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 61-80.
    17. Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2016. "Value-added Trade, Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Trade Elasticity: Revisiting the Trade Competitiveness," 2016 Papers pud11, Job Market Papers.
    18. Nagengast, Arne J. & Bursian, Dirk & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Dynamic pricing and exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from transaction-level data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Mina Kim & Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang & Jason Wu, 2013. "International Trade Price Stickiness and Exchange Rate and Pass-Through in Micro Data: A Case Study on US-China Trade," Working Papers 202013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    20. Alberto Cavallo & Brent Neiman & Roberto Rigobon, 2014. "Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(2), pages 529-595.
    21. Gee Hee Hong & Nicholas Li, 2013. "Market Structure and Cost Pass-Through in Retail," Staff Working Papers 13-5, Bank of Canada.
    22. Colin Hottman & Surabhi Ghai, 2019. "Exchange Rates, Product Variety, and Substitution in U.S. Scanner Data," 2019 Meeting Papers 1059, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Imura, Yuko, 2016. "Endogenous trade participation with price rigidities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 14-33.
    24. Naoko Hara & Kazuhiro Hiraki & Yoshitaka Ichise, 2015. "Changing Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japan: Does It Indicate Changing Pricing Behavior?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-4, Bank of Japan.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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