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The Sensitivity of Producer Prices to Exchange Rates: Insights from Micro Data

Author

Listed:
  • Shutao Cao
  • Wei Dong
  • Ben Tomlin

Abstract

This paper studies the sensitivity of Canadian producer prices to the Canada-U.S. exchange rate. Using a unique product-level price data set, we estimate and analyze the impact of movements in the exchange rate on both domestic and export producer prices. First, we find that both domestic and export prices are sensitive to movements in the exchange rate. A one percent depreciation in Canadian dollar is associated with a 0.18 (0.25 conditional on price changes in the currency of pricing) percent increase in domestic prices, and a 0.39 (0.60 conditional on price changes in the currency of pricing) percent increase in export prices (once prices are converted into a single currency). Next, we find that there is an important difference in export price sensitivity to the exchange rate depending on the currency of pricing. Those Canadian producers that invoice their exported products in Canadian dollars do not adjust prices to movements in the exchange rate. Meanwhile, those invoicing in U.S. dollars increase their Canadian dollar prices when the Canadian dollar depreciates. Finally, for the same good sold in both the domestic and U.S. markets, the currency of pricing appears to play an important role in determining mark-up adjustment and the degree of pricing to market. These findings shed light on understanding the sources of incomplete exchange rate pass-through into import prices, as well as the indirect effect of the exchange rates on domestic prices through import competition and the use of imported inputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Shutao Cao & Wei Dong & Ben Tomlin, 2012. "The Sensitivity of Producer Prices to Exchange Rates: Insights from Micro Data," Staff Working Papers 12-20, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Salamat Ali, 2017. "Exchange Rate Effects on Agricultural Exports: Firm-level Evidence from Pakistan," Discussion Papers 2017-09, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    2. Tomlin, Ben, 2014. "Exchange rate fluctuations, plant turnover and productivity," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 12-28.
    3. Nicholas Li, 2014. "Sticker Shock: The Causes of the Canada-US Price Differential," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 409, May.
    4. Gerardo Licandro & Miguel Mello, 2017. "Foreign Currency Invoicing of Domestic Transactions as a Hedging Strategy Theory and Evidence for Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2017004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    5. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Oleksandr Talavera, 2017. "Price Setting in Online Markets: Basic Facts, International Comparisons, and Cross-Border Integration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 249-282, January.
    6. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2016. "International Shocks and Domestic Prices: How Large Are Strategic Complementarities?," NBER Working Papers 22119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lewis, Logan T., 2014. "Exports versus multinational production under nominal uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 371-386.
    8. Miguel Mello, 2017. "Derivatives and Exchange Rate Hedging Strategies in Uruguayan Firms," Documentos de trabajo 2017005, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    9. Chen, Natalie & Chung, Wanyu & Novy, Dennis, 2018. "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 13085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Rose Cunningham & Christian Friedrich & Kristina Hess & Min Jae Kim, 2017. "Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices," Discussion Papers 17-12, Bank of Canada.
    11. repec:nea:journl:y:2019:i:41:p:128-157 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:imx:journl:v:13:y:2018:i:4:p:525-545 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ben Tomlin & Loretta Fung, 2015. "Exchange Rate Movements and the Distribution of Productivity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 782-809, September.
    14. El-Shagi, Makram & Zhang, Lin, 2016. "Macroeconomic trade effects of vehicle currencies: Evidence from 19th century China," IWH Discussion Papers 23/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Inflation and prices; Market structure and pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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