IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Exchange rate pass-through, domestic competition and inflation -- evidence from the 2005/08 revaluation of the Renminbi

  • Raphael Auer

How important is the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the competitive environment faced by domestic firms and the prices they charge? To answer this question, this paper examines the 17 percent appreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar from 2005 to 2008. In a monthly panel covering 110 sectors, a 1 percent appreciation of the Yuan increases U.S. import prices by roughly 0.8 percent. It is then shown that import prices, in turn, pass through into producer prices at an average rate of roughly 0.7, implying that a 1 percent Yuan appreciation increases the average U.S. producer price of tradable goods by 0.8 percent*0.7=0.56 percent. In contrast, exchange rate movements of other trade partners have much smaller effects on import prices and hardly any effect on producer prices. The paper next demonstrates that the pass through response into import prices is heterogeneous across sectors with different characteristics such as traded-input intensity or the shape of demand for the sector's goods. In contrast, the rate at which import prices pass through into domestic producer prices is found to be homogenous across the sectors. Finally, the insights of the analysis are employed to simulate the inflationary effect of a Yuan revaluation. For example, the relative price shock caused by a 25 percent appreciation of the Yuan spread evenly over 10 months is equivalent to a temporary increase of the U.S. PPI inflation rate by over five percentage points. Because such an appreciation would also influence the overall skewness of the distribution of price changes at the sectoral level, it would likely also impact U.S. equilibrium inflation.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2011/0068.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 68.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:68
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.dallasfed.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Keith Acheson, 2011. "Globalization," Chapters, in: A Handbook of Cultural Economics, Second Edition, chapter 31 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    • Keith Acheson, 2003. "Globalization," Chapters, in: A Handbook of Cultural Economics, chapter 31 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  2. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Frank Verboven, 1998. "The Evolution of Price Dispersion in the European Car Market," NBER Working Papers 6818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009. "New Estimation of China's Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 14700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Mina Kim, & Deokwoo Nam, & Jian Wang & Jason Wu,, 2013. "International Trade Price Stickiness and Exchange Rate Pass-through in Micro Data: A Case Study on US-China Trade," Working Papers 467, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  5. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein, 2008. "Pricing-to-market, trade costs, and international relative prices," Staff Report 404, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Bloom, Nicholas & Draca, Mirko & Van Reenen, John, 2011. "Trade induced technical change? The impact of Chinese imports on innovation, IT and productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 8236, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," NBER Working Papers 8858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  9. Robert Feenstra & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Pricing To Market, Staggered Contracts, And Real Exchange Rate Persistence," Working Papers 991, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  10. Natalie Chen & Jean Imbs & Andrew Scott, 2006. "The dynamics of trade and competition," Working Paper Research 91, National Bank of Belgium.
  11. Auer, Raphael A. & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2014. "Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 129-151.
  12. Auer, Raphael & Chaney, Thomas & Sauré, Philip, 2014. "Quality Pricing-to-Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 10053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Bussiére, Matthieu & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy : the role of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  14. Raphael Anton Auer & Andreas M. Fischer, 2008. "The Effect of Low-Wage Import Competition on U.S. Inflationary Pressure," Working Papers 2008-18, Swiss National Bank.
  15. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2004. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 10986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Feinberg, Robert M, 1989. "The Effects of Foreign Exchange Movements on U.S. Domestic Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 505-11, August.
  17. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2009. "Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market," NBER Working Papers 15359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Goldberg, Linda S. & Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 177-192, December.
  20. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0307, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  21. Christopher J. Gust & Sylvain Leduc & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2006. "Trade integration, competition, and the decline in exchange-rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 864, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Emi Nakamura & Dawit Zerom, 2010. "Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(3), pages 1192-1230.
  23. Raphael Auer & Kathrin Degen & Andreas M. Fischer, 2011. "Low-Wage Import Competition, Inflationary Pressure, and Industry Dynamics in Europe," Working Papers 11.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  24. Thomas Chaney & Raphael, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in a competitive model of pricing-to-market," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Burstein, Ariel Tomas & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2001. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization," CEPR Discussion Papers 2944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2012. "Importers, exporters, and exchange rate disconnect," Staff Reports 586, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  27. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2002. "Why Do Consumer Prices React less than Import Prices to Exchange Rates ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 02.18, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  28. Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust & J. David López-Salido, 2010. "International Competition and Inflation: A New Keynesian Perspective," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 247-80, October.
  29. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Assessing China's Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 13100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. J. Bradford Jensen & Andrew Bernard & Peter Schott, 2005. "Survival of the Best Fit: Exposure to Low-Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 05-19, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  31. Gagnon, Etienne & Mandel, Benjamin R. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2012. "Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through," International Finance Discussion Papers 1040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 12 Dec 2012.
  32. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2002. "Macroeconomics of international price discrimination," International Finance Discussion Papers 744, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  33. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2005. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," Development Working Papers 201, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
  34. Peter K. Schott, 2004. "Across-Product Versus Within-Product Specialization in International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(2), pages 647-678.
  35. Feenstra, R.C. & Gagnon, J.E. & Knetter, M.M., 1993. "Market Share and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in World Automobile Trade," Papers 93-14, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
  36. Auer, Raphael & Schoenle, Raphael, 2015. "Market Structure and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 10585, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  37. Feinberg, Robert M, 1986. "The Interaction of Foreign Exchange and Market Power Effects on German Domestic Prices," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 61-70, September.
  38. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 459-94, February.
  39. Frankel, Jeffrey & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2008. "Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of The Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights," Working Paper Series rwp08-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  40. Bussière, M. & Delle Chiaie, S. & Peltonen, T. A., 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Global Economy," Working papers 424, Banque de France.
  41. OTTAVIANO, Gianmarco & TABUCHI , Takatoshi & THISSE, Jacques-François, . "Agglomeration and trade revisited," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1553, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  42. Linda S. Goldberg & José Manuel Campa, 2010. "The Sensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates: Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs, and Trade Exposure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 392-407, May.
  43. Knetter, Michael M, 1993. "International Comparisons of Price-to-Market Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 473-86, June.
  44. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2010. "In search of real rigidities," Working Papers 10-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  45. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 14673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Sylvain Leduc & Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2005. "Pass-Through and Exchange-Rate Fluctuations in a DSGE Model of Price," 2005 Meeting Papers 381, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  47. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
  48. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul Klemperer, 1988. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," NBER Working Papers 2542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  50. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Modeling Exchange Rate Passthrough After Large Devaluations," RCER Working Papers 514, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  51. Mario Marazzi & Nathan Sheets & Robert J. Vigfusson & Jon Faust & Joseph E. Gagnon & Jaime R. Marquez & Robert F. Martin & Trevor A. Reeve & John H. Rogers, 2005. "Exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: some new evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 833, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  52. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2005. "DSGE models of high exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 845, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  53. Hellerstein, Rebecca, 2008. "Who bears the cost of a change in the exchange rate? Pass-through accounting for the case of beer," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 14-32, September.
  54. Goldberg, Pinelopi K. & Verboven, Frank, 2005. "Market integration and convergence to the Law of One Price: evidence from the European car market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 49-73, January.
  55. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
  56. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1992. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Jiawen Yang, 1997. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 95-104, February.
  58. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & John T. Barkoulas, 1999. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Profitability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 422, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Feb 2000.
  59. Knetter, Michael M, 1989. "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 198-210, March.
  60. Buti,Marco & Deroose,Servaas & Gaspar,Vitor & Martins,João Nogueira (ed.), 2010. "The Euro," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9789279098420, june. pag.
  61. Wing T. Woo, 1984. "Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nonfood, Nonfuel Products," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 511-536.
  62. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
  63. Steven B. Kamin & Trevor A. Reeve & Nathan Sheets, 2009. "U.S. External Adjustment: Is It Disorderly? Is It Unique? Will It Disrupt The Rest Of The World?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(2), pages 265-292, 04.
  64. Robert J. Vigfusson & Nathan Sheets & Joseph Gagnon, 2009. "Exchange Rate Passthrough to Export Prices: Assessing Cross-Country Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 17-33, 02.
  65. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-through," NBER Working Papers 13432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Staff Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
  67. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
  68. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg & Jose M. Gonzalez-Minguez, 2005. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the Euro area," Staff Reports 219, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  69. Neiman, Brent, 2010. "Stickiness, synchronization, and passthrough in intrafirm trade prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 295-308, April.
  70. Gita Gopinath & Roberto Rigobon, 2008. "Sticky Borders," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(2), pages 531-575.
  71. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2012. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," NBER Working Papers 18054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Enrico Sette, 2010. "The pro-competitive effect of imports from China: an analysis of firm-level price data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 737, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  73. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, Xing Wang, 2012. "Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  74. William R. Cline, 2010. "Renminbi Undervaluation, China's Surplus, and the US Trade Deficit," Policy Briefs PB10-20, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  75. Frank Verboven, 1996. "International Price Discrimination in the European Car Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 27(2), pages 240-268, Summer.
  76. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
  77. Dotsey, Michael & King, Robert G., 2005. "Implications of state-dependent pricing for dynamic macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 213-242, January.
  78. Marazzi, Mario & Sheets, Nathan, 2007. "Declining exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: The potential role of global factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 924-947, October.
  79. Auer, Raphael & Degen, Kathrin & Fischer, Andreas M, 2010. "Globalization and Inflation in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 8130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  80. Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "A Faith-Based Initiative Meets the Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 168-184, March.
  81. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  82. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel & Tille, Cedric, 2000. "Competitive devaluations: toward a welfare-based approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 217-241, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Chapman)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.