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International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages

Author

Listed:
  • Auer, Raphael
  • Levchenko, Andrei A.
  • Saur�, Philip

Abstract

We document that observed international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with international and domestic input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via the global input-output network, thus generating the observed dynamics of PPI. We then compare the extent to which common global factors account for the variation in actual PPI and in the underlying cost shocks. Our main finding is that across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation. We report three additional findings: (i) the results are similar when allowing for imperfect cost pass-through and demand complementarities; (ii) PPI synchronization across countries is driven primarily by common sectoral shocks and input-output linkages amplify co-movement primarily by propagating sectoral shocks; and (iii) the observed pattern of international input use preserves fat-tailed idiosyncratic shocks and thus leads to a fat-tailed distribution of inflation rates, i.e., periods of disinflation and high inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Auer, Raphael & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Saur�, Philip, 2017. "International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages," CEPR Discussion Papers 11906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11906
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa, 2017. "Sectoral interlinkages in global value chains: spillovers and network effects," Working Paper Series 2064, European Central Bank.
    2. Nikhil Patel & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates at the Country-Sector Level," NBER Working Papers 20236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Raphael Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2017. "The globalisation of inflation: the growing importance of global value chains," BIS Working Papers 602, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Shang-Jin Wei & Yinxi Xie, 2018. "On the Divergence between CPI and PPI as Inflation Gauges: The Role of Supply Chains," NBER Working Papers 24319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gregor Bäurle & Matthias Gubler & Diego R. Känzig, 2017. "International inflation spillovers - the role of different shocks," Working Papers 2017-07, Swiss National Bank.
    6. Robert C. Johnson, 2017. "Measuring Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 24027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global value chain; globalisation; inflation; input linkages; input-output linkages; international inflation synchronization; monetary policy; production structure; Supply Chain;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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