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Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations

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  • Julian di Giovanni
  • Andrei A. Levchenko
  • Isabelle Mejean

Abstract

This paper uses a dataset covering the universe of French firm-level value added, imports, and exports over the period 1995-2007 and a quantitative multi-country model to study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and the macro levels. Because the largest firms are the most likely to trade internationally, foreign shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy primarily through the large firms. We first document a novel stylized fact: larger French firms are significantly more sensitive to foreign GDP growth. We then implement a quantitative framework calibrated to the full extent of the observed heterogeneity in firm size, exporting, and importing. We simulate the propagation of foreign shocks to the French economy and report one micro and one macro finding. At the micro level heterogeneity across firms predominates: 45 to 75% of the impact of foreign fluctuations on French GDP is accounted for by the “foreign granular residual” – the term capturing the larger firms’ greater responsiveness to the foreign shocks. At the macro level, firm heterogeneity attenuates the impact of foreign shocks, with the GDP responses 10 to 20% larger in a representative firm model compared to the baseline model.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2020. "Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 28123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28123
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    Cited by:

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    4. João Amador & Carlos Melo Gouveia & Ana Catarina Pimenta, 2023. "COVID-19, lockdowns and international trade: evidence from firm-level data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2427-2466, November.
    5. Ma, Bing & Zheng, Min, 2022. "Heterogeneous firm dynamics and price setting behavior," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    6. Chang, Jeffery (Jinfan) & Du, Huancheng & Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher, 2022. "Ripples into waves: Trade networks, economic activity, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 217-238.
    7. Yusuf Emre Akgündüz & Salih Fendoğlu, 2022. "Export Prices, Imported Inputs, and Domestic Supply Networks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 383-419, September.
    8. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Juan Carluccio & Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Sebastian Stumpner, 2022. "From Macro to Micro: Large Exporters Coping with Common Shocks," Working papers 881, Banque de France.
    9. Lebastard, Laura & Matani, Marco & Serafini, Roberta, 2023. "GVC exporter performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of supply bottlenecks," Working Paper Series 2766, European Central Bank.
    10. Bas,Maria & Fernandes,Ana Margarida & Paunov,Caroline, 2022. "How Resilient Was Trade to COVID-19 ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9975, The World Bank.
    11. Karamysheva, Madina & Seregina, Ekaterina, 2022. "Prudential policies and systemic risk: The role of interconnections," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Chang, Jeffery (Jinfan) & Du, Huancheng & Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher, 2022. "Ripples into waves: trade networks, economic activity, and asset prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110838, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Andreas M. Fischer & Dr. Pinar Yesin, 2023. "The kindness of strangers: Brexit and bilateral financial linkages," Working Papers 2023-02, Swiss National Bank.
    14. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2022. "From Micro to Macro: Micro-Foundations of the Italian Business Cycle Co-movements During the Crises," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(3), pages 499-522, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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