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From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Charles Bricongne

    (Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Juan Carluccio

    (Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France, UNIS - University of Surrey)

  • Lionel Fontagné

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Guillaume Gaulier

    (Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Sebastian Stumpner

    (Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

Using monthly firm-level exports and imports over 1993–2020, we uncover four facts: (i) deviations of large exporters from the average growth rate explain a large share of aggregate fluctuations; (ii) an important source for these deviations is the top exporters' higher loadings on common shocks; (iii) the stronger reaction of the top 1% exporters to the GFC and Covid crises contributed to the export collapses; (iv) a higher elasticity to large demand shocks, not a different exposure to global value chain shocks, contributes to this stronger reaction. The results show that idiosyncratic reactions of large firms to common shocks matter for aggregate export fluctuations, and are especially relevant for the trade collapses of the 2008/2009 crisis and the Pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Charles Bricongne & Juan Carluccio & Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Sebastian Stumpner, 2025. "From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-04948404, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-04948404
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037
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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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