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COVID-19, Lockdowns and International Trade: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

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  • Ana Catarina Pimenta
  • Carlos Melo Gouveia
  • João Amador

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemics and the lockdowns imposed to mitigate the rise of infections beyond manageable levels strongly affected international trade in the early months of 2020. Although the health crisis and the mobility restrictions associated to lockdowns are closely related, their impacts on international trade have a different nature. This paper uses monthly firm-level trade data for Portuguese firms to measure the impact of lockdowns on nominal export and import flows during 2020 and the first half of 2021, while also assessing the impact of the health crisis. The high time frequency and granularity of the data contribute to the identification of the impact of these obstacles on trade. We conclude that the detrimental impact of lockdowns is sizeable and broadly similar in exports and imports, and the impact of the health conditions is slightly stronger in exports. There is evidence of a lower impact of lockdowns as of June 2020, hinting at a progressive adaptation of international traders to the prevailing circumstances. Notwithstanding this adaptation, the impact of lockdowns partly remerged in the third wave of the pandemics, notably on imports flows. There is also evidence that the impact of lockdowns was stronger for larger firms and for those more integrated in global value chains.

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  • Ana Catarina Pimenta & Carlos Melo Gouveia & João Amador, 2021. "COVID-19, Lockdowns and International Trade: Evidence from Firm-Level Data," Working Papers w202114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202114
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2022. "Covid-19 and Capital Flows: The Responses of Investors to the Responses of Governments," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 751-774, September.
    2. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Juan Carluccio & Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Sebastian Stumpner, 2022. "From Macro to Micro: Large Exporters Coping with Common Shocks," Working papers 881, Banque de France.
    3. Constantinescu,Ileana Cristina & Fernandes,Ana Margarida & Grover,Arti Goswami & Poupakis,Stavros & Reyes Ortega,Santiago, 2022. "Globally Engaged Firms in the COVID-19 Crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9991, The World Bank.
    4. Bas,Maria & Fernandes,Ana Margarida & Paunov,Caroline, 2022. "How Resilient Was Trade to COVID-19 ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9975, The World Bank.
    5. Joao Capella-Ramos & Romina Guri, 2022. "Firm adaptation in COVID-19 times: The case of Portuguese exporting firms," GEE Papers 0169, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Sep 2022.

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