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Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach
[Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]

Author

Listed:
  • Severin Reissl
  • Alessandro Caiani
  • Francesco Lamperti
  • Mattia Guerini
  • Fabio Vanni
  • Giorgio Fagiolo
  • Tommaso Ferraresi
  • Leonardo Ghezzi
  • Mauro Napoletano
  • Andrea Roventini

Abstract

We build a novel interregional computational input–output model to assess the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy. Lockdowns are modeled as shocks to labor supply, calibrated on regional and sectoral employment data coupled with the prescriptions of government decrees. When estimated on data from the first lockdown, our model closely reproduces the observed economic dynamics during spring 2020. We also show that the model delivers a good out-of-sample performance during fall and winter 2020 and demonstrate that it can be used to analyze counterfactual scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 358-409.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:31:y:2022:i:2:p:358-409.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/icc/dtac003
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    Cited by:

    1. Pichler, Anton & Hurt, Jan & Reisch, Tobias & Stangl, Johannes & Thurner, Stefan, 2024. "Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Silke Hamann & Annekatrin Niebuhr & Duncan Roth & Georg Sieglen, 2023. "How does the Covid‐19 pandemic affect regional labor markets and why do large cities suffer most?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(5), pages 1228-1250, November.
    3. Mattia Pettena & Marco Raberto, 2024. "Energy transition and structural change: a calibrated Stock-Flow Consistent Input-Output model," CELPE Discussion Papers 171, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    4. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi, 2024. "A regional input-output model of the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: decomposing demand and supply factors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 100-130, January.
    5. Patrick Mellacher & Simon Plakolb, 2025. "Global Inequality in Vaccine Access, Mortality and Economy: An Agent-based Exploration," Graz Economics Papers 2025-12, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    6. Di Noia, Jlenia & Caiani, Alessandro & Cesarini, Luigi & Arosio, Marcello & Monteleone, Beatrice, 2025. "A high resolution input–output model to assess the economic impact of floods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    7. Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl & Enrico Turco, 2023. "V for vaccines and variants," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 991-1046, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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