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Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input-Output Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Severin Reissl

    (IUSS Pavia)

  • Alessandro Caiani

    (IUSS Pavia)

  • Francesco Lamperti

    (Institute of Economics and EMbeDS, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
    RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment)

  • Mattia Guerini

    (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France
    Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies
    Sciences Po., OFCE)

  • Fabio Vanni

    (Sciences Po, OFCE)

  • Giorgio Fagiolo

    (Institute of Economics and EMbeDS, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna)

  • Tommaso Ferraresi

    (Istituto Regionale per la Programmazione Economica della Toscana)

  • Leonardo Ghezzi

    (Istituto Regionale per la Programmazione Economica della Toscana)

  • Mauro Napoletano

    (OFCE Sciences-Po
    SKEMA Business School)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (Institute of Economics and EMbeDS, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
    Sciences Po, OFCE)

Abstract

We build a novel computational input-output model to estimate the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy. The key advantage of our framework is to integrate the regional and sectoral dimensions of economic production in a very parsimonious numerical simulation framework. Lockdowns are treated as shocks to available labor supply and they are calibrated on regional and sectoral employment data coupled with the prescriptions of government decrees. We show that when estimated on data from the first "hard" lock-down, our model closely reproduces the observed economic dynamics during spring 2020. In addition, we show that the model delivers a good out-of-sample forecasting performance. We also analyze the e ects of the second "mild" lockdown in fall of 2020 which delivered a much more moderate negative impact on production compared to both the spring 2020 lockdown and to a hypothetical second "hard" lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input-Output Approach," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-15, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
  • Handle: RePEc:gre:wpaper:2021-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl & Enrico Turco, 2021. "V for Vaccines and Variants," CESifo Working Paper Series 9291, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Input-output; Covid-19; Lockdown; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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