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Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy?

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Listed:
  • Anton Pichler
  • Marco Pangallo
  • R. Maria del Rio-Chanona
  • Franc{c}ois Lafond
  • J. Doyne Farmer

Abstract

We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply and demand, and input-output constraints play a key role in restricting economic output. Standard models for production functions are not adequate to model the short-term effects of lockdown. A survey of industry analysts conducted by IHS Markit allows us to evaluate which inputs for each industry are absolutely necessary for production over a two month period. Our model also includes inventory dynamics and feedback between unemployment and consumption. We demonstrate that economic outcomes are very sensitive to the choice of production function, show how supply constraints cause strong network effects, and find some counter-intuitive effects, such as that reopening only a few industries can actually lower aggregate output. Occupation-specific data and contact surveys allow us to estimate how different industries affect the transmission rate of the disease. We investigate six different re-opening scenarios, presenting our best estimates for the increase in R0 and the increase in GDP. Our results suggest that there is a reasonable compromise that yields a relatively small increase in R0 and delivers a substantial boost in economic output. This corresponds to a situation in which all non-consumer facing industries reopen, schools are open only for workers who need childcare, and everyone who can work from home continues to work from home.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Pichler & Marco Pangallo & R. Maria del Rio-Chanona & Franc{c}ois Lafond & J. Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy?," Papers 2005.10585, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2005.10585
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marta Fana & Songul Tolan & Sergio Torrejon Perez & Maria Cesira Urzi Brancati & Enrique Fernandez Macias, 2020. "The COVID confinement measures and EU labour markets," JRC Working Papers JRC120578, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    2. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    3. Avi Goldfarb & Catherine Tucker, 2020. "Which Retail Outlets Generate the Most Physical Interactions?," NBER Working Papers 27042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Stefan Sauer & Marc Stöckli & Kl, 2020. "The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Selected European Countries: A Scenario Calculation," EconPol Policy Brief 25, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    5. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2020. "The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios," CAMA Working Papers 2020-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Charles Gottlieb & Jan Grobovsek & Markus Poschke, 2020. "Working from Home across Countries," Cahiers de recherche 07-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    7. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2020. "The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown against the spread of COVID-19," Papers 2003.14002, arXiv.org.
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    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences > Production and supply

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Diem & Andr'as Borsos & Tobias Reisch & J'anos Kert'esz & Stefan Thurner, 2021. "Quantifying firm-level economic systemic risk from nation-wide supply networks," Papers 2104.07260, arXiv.org.
    2. Anton Pichler & Marco Pangallo & R. Maria del Rio-Chanona & Franc{c}ois Lafond & J. Doyne Farmer, 2021. "In and out of lockdown: Propagation of supply and demand shocks in a dynamic input-output model," Papers 2102.09608, arXiv.org.
    3. Anton Pichler & J. Doyne Farmer, 2021. "Simultaneous supply and demand constraints in input-output networks: The case of Covid-19 in Germany, Italy, and Spain," Papers 2101.07818, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    4. Heinrich, Torsten, 2021. "Epidemics in modern economies," MPRA Paper 107578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Domenico Delli Gatti & Elisa Grugni, 2021. "Breaking Bad: Supply Chain Disruptions in a Streamlined Agent Based Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 9029, CESifo.
    6. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "Assessing the economic effects of lockdowns in Italy: a computational Input-Output approach," LEM Papers Series 2021/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input-Output Approach," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-15, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    8. Orkideh Gharehgozli & Peyman Nayebvali & Amir Gharehgozli & Zaman Zamanian, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 on the Economic Output of the US Outbreak’s Epicenter," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 561-573, October.

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