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Lockdown Accounting

Author

Listed:
  • Gottlieb, Charles

    (University of St. Gallen)

  • Grobovsek, Jan

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Poschke, Markus

    (McGill University)

  • Saltiel, Fernando

    (McGill University)

Abstract

We measure the effect of lockdown policies on employment and GDP across countries using individual- and sector-level data. Employment effects depend on the ability to work from home, which ranges from about half of total employment in rich countries to around 35% in poor countries. This gap reflects differences in occupational composition, self-employment levels, and individual characteristics across countries. GDP effects of lockdown policies also depend on countries' sectoral structure. Losses in poor countries are attenuated by their higher value-added share in essential sectors, notably agriculture. Overall, a realistic lockdown policy implies GDP losses of 20-25% on an annualized basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gottlieb, Charles & Grobovsek, Jan & Poschke, Markus & Saltiel, Fernando, 2020. "Lockdown Accounting," IZA Discussion Papers 13397, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13397
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Charles Gottlieb & Jan Grobovsek & Markus Poschke & Fernando Saltiel, 2020. "Lockdown Accounting," Cahiers de recherche 18-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Distancing and Lockdown > Effect on Economy

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    Cited by:

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    2. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Leonardo Bonilla‐Mejía & Jose Pulido & Luz A. Flórez & Didier Hermida & Karen L. Pulido‐Mahecha & Francisco Lasso‐Valderrama, 2022. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Colombian labour market: Disentangling the effect of sector‐specific mobility restrictions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 308-357, February.
    3. Cecilia Peluffo & Mariana Viollaz, 2021. "Intra-household exposure to labor market risk in the time of Covid-19: lessons from Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 327-351, June.
    4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "COVID-19 and SME Failures," IMF Working Papers 2020/207, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2021. "Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’," NBER Working Papers 29293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Antonio Estache & Simon Tooth, 2020. "On the scope for work-from-home in high and upper middle-income countries," Working Papers ECARES 2020-46, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Blagica Petreski & Marjan Petreski & Bojan Srbinoski, 2020. "The potential of export-oriented companies to contribute to post-Covid-19 economic recovery in North Macedonia," Finance Think Policy Studies 2020-12/33, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    8. Mateusz Filipski & Anubhab Gupta & Justin Kagin & Arif Husain & Alejandro Grinspun & Oscar Maria Caccavale & Silvio Daidone & Valerio Giuffrida & Friederike Greb & Joseph Hooker & Susanna Sandström & , 2022. "A local general‐equilibrium emergency response modeling approach for sub‐Saharan Africa," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 72-89, January.
    9. Nelson, Michael A., 2021. "The timing and aggressiveness of early government response to COVID-19: Political systems, societal culture, and more," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; work from home; structural change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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