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Lockdown Accounting

Author

Listed:
  • Gottlieb, Charles

    (Aix Marseille University)

  • Grobovsek, Jan

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Poschke, Markus

    (McGill University)

  • Saltiel, Fernando

    (McGill University)

Abstract

We measure the effect of lockdown policies on employment and GDP across countries using individual- and sector-level data. Employment effects depend on the ability to work from home, which ranges from about half of total employment in rich countries to around 35% in poor countries. This gap reflects differences in occupational composition, self-employment levels, and individual characteristics across countries. GDP effects of lockdown policies also depend on countries' sectoral structure. Losses in poor countries are attenuated by their higher value-added share in essential sectors, notably agriculture. Overall, a realistic lockdown policy implies GDP losses of 20-25% on an annualized basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gottlieb, Charles & Grobovsek, Jan & Poschke, Markus & Saltiel, Fernando, 2020. "Lockdown Accounting," IZA Discussion Papers 13397, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13397
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Charles Gottlieb & Jan Grobovsek & Markus Poschke & Fernando Saltiel, 2020. "Lockdown Accounting," Cahiers de recherche 18-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Distancing and Lockdown > Effect on Economy

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    Cited by:

    1. Sangmin Aum & Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee & Yongseok Shin, 2022. "Who Should Work from Home During a Pandemic? The Wage-Infection Trade-off," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(2), pages 92-109.
    2. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Leonardo Bonilla‐Mejía & Jose Pulido & Luz A. Flórez & Didier Hermida & Karen L. Pulido‐Mahecha & Francisco Lasso‐Valderrama, 2022. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Colombian labour market: Disentangling the effect of sector‐specific mobility restrictions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 308-357, February.
    3. Cecilia Peluffo & Mariana Viollaz, 2021. "Intra-household exposure to labor market risk in the time of Covid-19: lessons from Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 327-351, June.
    4. Blagica Petreski & Marjan Petreski & Bojan Srbinoski, 2020. "The potential of export-oriented companies to contribute to post-Covid-19 economic recovery in North Macedonia," Finance Think Policy Studies 2020-12/33, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    5. Mateusz Filipski & Anubhab Gupta & Justin Kagin & Arif Husain & Alejandro Grinspun & Oscar Maria Caccavale & Silvio Daidone & Valerio Giuffrida & Friederike Greb & Joseph Hooker & Susanna Sandström & , 2022. "A local general‐equilibrium emergency response modeling approach for sub‐Saharan Africa," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 72-89, January.
    6. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "COVID-19 and SME Failures," IMF Working Papers 2020/207, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2021. "Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’," NBER Working Papers 29293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Nelson, Michael A., 2021. "The timing and aggressiveness of early government response to COVID-19: Political systems, societal culture, and more," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Antonio Estache & Simon Tooth, 2020. "On the scope for work-from-home in high and upper middle-income countries," Working Papers ECARES 2020-46, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; work from home; structural change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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