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Employment impact of Covid-19 crisis: from short term effects to long terms prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Marta Fana

    (Joint Research Center of the European Commission)

  • Sergio Torrejón Pérez

    (Joint Research Center of the European Commission)

  • Enrique Fernández-Macías

    (Joint Research Center of the European Commission)

Abstract

We contribute to the assessment of the employment implications of the COVID crisis by classifying economic sectors according to the confinement decrees of three European countries (Germany, Spain and Italy). The analysis of these decrees can be used to make a first assessment of the implications of the COVID crisis on labour markets, and also to speculate on mid and long-term developments, since the most and least affected sectors are probably going to continue to operate differently until a vaccine or other long-term solution is found. Using an ad-hoc extraction of EU-LFS data, we apply this classification to the analysis of employment in Germany, Italy and Spain but also UK, Poland and Sweden, in order to cover the whole spectrum of institutional labour market settings within Europe. Our results, in line with recent literature, show that the employment impact is asymmetric within and between countries. In particular, the countries that are being hardest hit by the pandemic itself (Spain and Italy, and also the UK) are the countries more likely to suffer the worst employment implications of the confinement, because of their productive specialisation and labour market institutions. Indeed, these were also the labour markets that were more vulnerable before the crisis: characterised by high unemployment and precarious work (especially temporary contracts).

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Fana & Sergio Torrejón Pérez & Enrique Fernández-Macías, 2020. "Employment impact of Covid-19 crisis: from short term effects to long terms prospects," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(3), pages 391-410, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:epolin:v:47:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s40812-020-00168-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s40812-020-00168-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Annamaria Simonazzi & Andrea Ginzburg & Gianluigi Nocella, 2013. "Economic relations between Germany and southern Europe," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 653-675.
    2. Sebastian Doerr & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2020. "Covid-19 and regional employment in Europe," BIS Bulletins 16, Bank for International Settlements.
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    6. Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen & Adam Sheridan, 2020. "Pandemic, Shutdown and Consumer Spending: Lessons from Scandinavian Policy Responses to COVID-19," Papers 2005.04630, arXiv.org.
    7. Marta Fana & Songul Tolan & Sergio Torrejon Perez & Maria Cesira Urzi Brancati & Enrique Fernandez Macias, 2020. "The COVID confinement measures and EU labour markets," JRC Working Papers JRC120578, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    8. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    9. John Hurley & Enrique Fernandez Macias & Martina Bisello & Carlos Vacas & Marta Fana, 2019. "European Jobs Monitor 2019: Shifts in the employment structure at regional level," JRC Working Papers JRC117824, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    10. Jean-Noël Barrot & Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2020. "Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing," Working Papers hal-02896730, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Long-term consequences

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    Cited by:

    1. Ritzen, Jozef M., 2020. "Once the great lockdown is lifted: Post COVID-19 options for the economy," MERIT Working Papers 2020-057, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. E. Sachini & K. Sioumalas-Christodoulou & C. Chrysomallidis & G. Siganos & N. Bouras & N. Karampekios, 2021. "COVID-19 enabled co-authoring networks: a country-case analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(6), pages 5225-5244, June.
    3. Maryna Tverdostup, 2021. "Gender Gaps in Employment, Wages, and Work Hours: Assessment of COVID-19 Implications," wiiw Working Papers 202, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Ilan Strauss & Gilad Isaacs & Josh Rosenberg, 2021. "The effect of shocks to GDP on employment in SADC member states during COVID‐19 using a Bayesian hierarchical model," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 221-237, April.
    5. Chan, Ho-Yin & Chen, Anthony & Ma, Wei & Sze, Nang-Ngai & Liu, Xintao, 2021. "COVID-19, community response, public policy, and travel patterns: A tale of Hong Kong," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 173-184.
    6. Davide Villani & Marta Fana, 2021. "Productive integration, economic recession and employment in Europe: an assessment based on vertically integrated sectors," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(2), pages 137-157, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour market; Employment structure; Covid-19 employment impact; European economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies

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