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Employment impact of Covid-19 crisis: from short term effects to long terms prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Marta Fana

    (Joint Research Center of the European Commission)

  • Sergio Torrejón Pérez

    (Joint Research Center of the European Commission)

  • Enrique Fernández-Macías

    (Joint Research Center of the European Commission)

Abstract

We contribute to the assessment of the employment implications of the COVID crisis by classifying economic sectors according to the confinement decrees of three European countries (Germany, Spain and Italy). The analysis of these decrees can be used to make a first assessment of the implications of the COVID crisis on labour markets, and also to speculate on mid and long-term developments, since the most and least affected sectors are probably going to continue to operate differently until a vaccine or other long-term solution is found. Using an ad-hoc extraction of EU-LFS data, we apply this classification to the analysis of employment in Germany, Italy and Spain but also UK, Poland and Sweden, in order to cover the whole spectrum of institutional labour market settings within Europe. Our results, in line with recent literature, show that the employment impact is asymmetric within and between countries. In particular, the countries that are being hardest hit by the pandemic itself (Spain and Italy, and also the UK) are the countries more likely to suffer the worst employment implications of the confinement, because of their productive specialisation and labour market institutions. Indeed, these were also the labour markets that were more vulnerable before the crisis: characterised by high unemployment and precarious work (especially temporary contracts).

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Fana & Sergio Torrejón Pérez & Enrique Fernández-Macías, 2020. "Employment impact of Covid-19 crisis: from short term effects to long terms prospects," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(3), pages 391-410, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:epolin:v:47:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s40812-020-00168-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s40812-020-00168-5
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Long-term consequences

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    Cited by:

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    3. Sven-Olov Daunfeldt & Anton Gidehag & Niklas Rudholm, 2021. "How Do Firms Respond to Reduced Labor Costs? Evidence from the 2007 Swedish Payroll Tax Reform," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 315-338, September.
    4. Gervásio Ferreira dos Santos & Luiz Carlos de Santana Ribeiro & Rodrigo Barbosa de Cerqueira, 2020. "The informal sector and Covid‐19 economic impacts: The case of Bahia, Brazil," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1273-1285, December.
    5. Lorenzo Pratici & Phillip McMinn Singer, 2021. "COVID-19 Vaccination: What Do We Expect for the Future? A Systematic Literature Review of Social Science Publications in the First Year of the Pandemic (2020–2021)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Ivana MARINOVIC MATOVIC & Andjela LAZAREVIC, 2021. "Business Revenue And Job Retention During Covid-19 Crisis In Manufacturing Sector In Serbia," Business Excellence and Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(5), pages 113-128, October.
    7. Suleman, Neha & Admani, Arisha & Rahima, Rahima & Ali, Syed Saif & Sami, Abdul, 2022. "How do skills influence the students’ employability in a developing economy?," MPRA Paper 112326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Argatu Ruxandra & Puie Răzvanţă Florina, 2021. "Perspectives of social entrepreneurship in Romania in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 1042-1053, December.
    9. Nicolae Daniel MĂIŢĂ & Alexandra-Irina (BADEA) PĂDUREAN & Vasile APOSTOL, 2021. "COVID-19 Crisis – Impact of the Pandemic into the Perception of Business Risk through Romanian SMEs Sector," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 22(4), pages 507-518, October.
    10. Chan, Ho-Yin & Chen, Anthony & Ma, Wei & Sze, Nang-Ngai & Liu, Xintao, 2021. "COVID-19, community response, public policy, and travel patterns: A tale of Hong Kong," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 173-184.
    11. E. Sachini & K. Sioumalas-Christodoulou & C. Chrysomallidis & G. Siganos & N. Bouras & N. Karampekios, 2021. "COVID-19 enabled co-authoring networks: a country-case analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(6), pages 5225-5244, June.
    12. Ylber Aliu & Lavdim Terziu & Albulena Brestovci, 2022. "Covid-19 and Labour Market in Kosovo," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 77-92.
    13. Davide Villani & Marta Fana, 2021. "Productive integration, economic recession and employment in Europe: an assessment based on vertically integrated sectors," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(2), pages 137-157, June.
    14. Ceyhun Guler, 2021. "Deepening Problems of Domestic Workers During the COVID-19 Outbreak: The Case of Istanbul," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 64(64), pages 183-206, December.
    15. Florina PINZARU & Alexandra ZBUCHEA, 2020. "Adapting Knowledge Management Strategies In The Context Of The Covid-19 Pandemic. A Preliminary Overview," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(1), pages 307-318, November.
    16. Piquero, Alex R. & Jennings, Wesley G. & Jemison, Erin & Kaukinen, Catherine & Knaul, Felicia Marie, 2021. "Domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic - Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Ilan Strauss & Gilad Isaacs & Josh Rosenberg, 2021. "The effect of shocks to GDP on employment in SADC member states during COVID‐19 using a Bayesian hierarchical model," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 221-237, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour market; Employment structure; Covid-19 employment impact; European economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies

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