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Assessing the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy: a computational input-output approach

Author

Listed:
  • Severin Reissl
  • Alessandro Caiani
  • Francesco Lamperti
  • Mattia Guerini
  • Fabio Vanni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Giorgio Fagiolo
  • Tommaso Ferraresi
  • Leonardo Ghezzi
  • Mauro Napoletano

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

We build a novel computational input-output model to estimate the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy. The key advantage of our framework is to integrate the regional and sectoral dimensions of economic production in a very parsimonious numerical simulation framework. Lockdowns are treated as shocks to available labor supply and they are calibrated on regional and sectoral employment data coupled with the prescriptions of government decrees. We show that when estimated on data from the first "hard" lockdown, our model closely reproduces the observed economic dynamics during spring 2020. In addition, we show that the model delivers a good out-of-sample forecasting performance. We also analyze the effects of the second "mild" lockdown in fall of 2020 which delivered a much more moderate negative impact on production compared to both the spring 2020 lockdown and to a hypothetical second "hard" lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "Assessing the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy: a computational input-output approach," Working Papers hal-03373672, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03373672
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03373672
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    Cited by:

    1. Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl & Enrico Turco, 2023. "V for vaccines and variants," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 991-1046, September.
    2. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi, 2022. "A regional Input-Output model of the Covid-19 crisis in Italy: decomposing demand and supply factors," LEM Papers Series 2022/04, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    input-output; Covid-19; lockdown; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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