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The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Cem Cakmakli

    (Koç University)

  • Selva Demiralp

    (Koç University)

  • Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

    (University of Maryland, Department of Economics)

  • Sevcan Yesiltas

    (Koç University)

  • Muhammed A. Yildirim

    (Koç University & Center for International Development at Harvard University)

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The arrival of effective vaccines can be a major game changer. However, vaccines are in short supply as of early 2021 and most of them are reserved for the advanced economies. We show that the global GDP loss of not inoculating all the countries, relative to a counterfactual of global vaccinations, can be higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally. We use an economic-epidemiological framework that combines a SIR model with international production and trade networks. Based on this framework, we estimate the costs for 65 countries and 35 sectors. Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pandemic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2104, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:2104
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2022. "Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe," Globalization Institute Working Papers 414, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 12 Jul 2022.
    2. Ricardo Hausmann & Ulrich Schetter & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2022. "On the Design of Effective Sanctions: The Case of Bans on Exports to Russia," CID Working Papers 417, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    3. Laurence S. J. Roope & Adrian Barnett & Paolo Candio & Mara Violato & Raymond Duch & Philip M. Clarke, 2022. "Is There Broad-Based Support in High-Income Countries for COVID-19 Vaccine Donation? Evidence from Seven Countries," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 55-65, January.
    4. Fu, Yuting & Jin, Hanqing & Xiang, Haitao & Wang, Ning, 2022. "Optimal lockdown policy for vaccination during COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    5. Philip Clarke & Laurence Roope & Peter Loewen & Jean-François Bonnefon & Alessia Melegaro & Jorge Friedman & Mara Violato & Adrian Barnett & Raymond Duch, 2021. "Public opinion on global rollout of COVID-19 vaccines," Post-Print hal-03261784, HAL.
    6. Linus Nyiwul, 2021. "Epidemic Control and Resource Allocation: Approaches and Implications for the Management of COVID-19," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 9(2), pages 283-305, December.
    7. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Juan Carluccio & Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Sebastian Stumpner, 2022. "From Macro to Micro: Large Exporters Coping with Common Shocks," Working papers 881, Banque de France.
    8. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2021. "COVID-19 Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing," Globalization Institute Working Papers 407, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. D. G. Webster & Semra A. Aytur & Mark Axelrod & Robyn S. Wilson & Joseph A. Hamm & Linda Sayed & Amber L. Pearson & Pedro Henrique C. Torres & Alero Akporiaye & Oran Young, 2022. "Learning from the Past: Pandemics and the Governance Treadmill," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-26, March.
    10. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Veronika Grimm & Franziska K. Lembcke & Milena Schwarz, 2021. "Impffortschritt in Deutschland und der Welt: Chancen und Risiken [Opportunities and Risks of Vaccination Progress]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(4), pages 266-275, April.
    12. Yang Ye & Qingpeng Zhang & Xuan Wei & Zhidong Cao & Hsiang-Yu Yuan & Daniel Dajun Zeng, 2022. "Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines makes a life-saving difference to all countries," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 207-216, February.
    13. L'aszl'o Czaller & GergH{o} T'oth & Bal'azs Lengyel, 2021. "Vaccine allocation to blue-collar workers," Papers 2104.04639, arXiv.org.
    14. Jiang, Peng & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Fan, Yee Van & Fu, Xiuju & Tan, Raymond R. & You, Siming & Foley, Aoife M., 2021. "Energy, environmental, economic and social equity (4E) pressures of COVID-19 vaccination mismanagement: A global perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    15. Chad P. Bown & Thomas J. Bollyky, 2022. "How COVID‐19 vaccine supply chains emerged in the midst of a pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 468-522, February.
    16. Ali Kök & Ergün Yükseltan & Mustafa Hekimoðlu & Esra Agca Aktunc & Ahmet Yücekaya & Ayþe Bilge, 2022. "Forecasting Hourly Electricity Demand Under COVID-19 Restrictions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 73-85.
    17. Agarwal,Ruchir & Reed,Tristan, 2021. "How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9632, The World Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Sectoral Infection Dynamics; Globalization; International I-O Linkages.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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