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V for vaccines and variants

Author

Listed:
  • Domenico Delli Gatti

    (Catholic University
    Catholic University
    CESifo)

  • Severin Reissl

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment)

  • Enrico Turco

    (Catholic University
    Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

Abstract

In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, we evaluate the effects of vaccines and virus variants on epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes by means of Monte Carlo simulations of a macroeconomic-epidemiological agent-based model calibrated using data from the Lombardy region of Italy. From simulations we infer that vaccination plays the role of a mitigating factor, reducing the frequency and the amplitude of contagion waves and significantly improving macroeconomic performance with respect to a scenario without vaccination. The emergence of a variant, on the other hand, plays the role of an accelerating factor, leading to a deterioration of both epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes and partly negating the beneficial impacts of the vaccine. A new and improved vaccine in turn can redress the situation. Vaccinations and variants, therefore, can be conceived of as drivers of an intertwined cycle impacting both epidemiological and macroeconomic developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl & Enrico Turco, 2023. "V for vaccines and variants," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 991-1046, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:33:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s00191-023-00818-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-023-00818-6
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    1. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 358-409.
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    10. Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Fabio Vanni & Alessandro Caiani & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Severin Reissl & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "On the Economic and Health Impact of the COVID-19 Shock on Italian Regions: A Value Chain Approach," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-18, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrico Turco & Davide Bazzana & Massimiliano Rizzati & Emanuele Ciola & Sergio Vergalli, 2022. "Energy price shocks and stabilization policies in a multi-agent macroeconomic model for the Euro Area," Working Papers 2022.25, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Biondo, Alessio Emanuele & Cellini, Roberto & Cuccia, Tiziana, 2022. "Cultural consumption in times of lock-down: An agent-based model of choice," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 430-440.
    3. Ciola, Emanuele & Turco, Enrico & Gurgone, Andrea & Bazzana, Davide & Vergalli, Sergio & Menoncin, Francesco, 2023. "Enter the MATRIX model:a Multi-Agent model for Transition Risks with application to energy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Severin Reissl, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers, expectations and learning in a macroeconomic agent‐based model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1704-1729, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agent-based models; Epidemic; Covid; Vaccination; Variant;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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