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Winter is possibly not coming : mitigating financial instability in an agent-based model with interbank market

Author

Listed:
  • Lilit Popoyan

    (Institute of Economics (LEM), Scula superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italia)

  • Mauro Napoletano

    (Sciences Po OFCE, Skema Business School)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (EMbe DS and Institute of Economics (LEM))

Abstract

We develop a macroeconomic agent-based model to study how financial instability can emerge from the co-evolution of interbank and credit markets and the policy responses to mitigate its impact on the real economy. The model is populated by heterogenous firms, consumers, and banks that locally interact in different markets. In particular, banks provide credit to firms according to a Basel II or III macro-prudential frameworks and manage their liquidity in the interbank market. The Central Bank performs monetary policy according to different types of Taylor rules. We find that the model endogenously generates market freezes in the interbank market, which interact with the financial accelerator, possibly leading to firm bankruptcies, banking crises and the emergence of deep downturns. This requires the timely intervention of the Central Bank as a liquidity lender of last resort. Moreover, we find that the joint adoption of a three mandate Taylor rule tackling credit growth and the Basel III macro-prudential framework is the best policy mix to stabilize financial and real economic dynamics. However, as the Liquidity Coverage Ratio spurs financial instability by increasing the pro-cyclicality of banks’ liquid reserves, a new counter-cyclical liquidity buffer should be added to Basel III to improve its performance further. Finally, we find that the Central Bank can also dampen financial instability by employing a new unconventional monetary-policy tool involving active management of the interest-rate corridor in the interbank market.
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Suggested Citation

  • Lilit Popoyan & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "Winter is possibly not coming : mitigating financial instability in an agent-based model with interbank market," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-14, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1914
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    8. D’Orazio, Paola & Popoyan, Lilit, 2023. "Do monetary policy mandates and financial stability governance structures matter for the adoption of climate-related financial policies?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 284-295.
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    10. Andrea Vandin & Daniele Giachini & Francesco Lamperti & Francesca Chiaromonte, 2021. "Automated and Distributed Statistical Analysis of Economic Agent-Based Models," Papers 2102.05405, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    11. Gross, Marco, 2022. "Beautiful cycles: A theory and a model implying a curious role for interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    12. Lilit Popoyan, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy: a Blessing or a Curse?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 11(1-2).
    13. Andrea Vandin & Daniele Giachini & Francesco Lamperti & Francesca Chiaromonte, 2020. "Automated and Distributed Statistical Analysis of Economic Agent-Based Models," LEM Papers Series 2020/31, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial instability; interbank market freezes; monetary policy; macro- prudential policy; Basel III regulation; Tinbergen principle; agent-based model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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