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Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System

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We provide a framework for assessing the build-up of vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system. We collect forty-four indicators of financial and balance-sheet conditions, cutting across measures of valuation pressures, nonfinancial borrowing, and financial-sector health. We place the data in economic categories, track their evolution, and develop an algorithmic approach to monitoring vulnerabilities that can complement the more judgmental approach of most official-sector organizations. Our approach picks up rising imbalances in the U.S. financial system through the mid-2000s, presaging the financial crisis. We also highlight several statistical properties of our approach: most importantly, our summary measures of system-wide vulnerabilities lead the credit-to-GDP gap (a key gauge in Basel III and related research) by a year or more. Thus, our framework may provide useful information for setting macroprudential policy tools such as the countercyclical capital buffer.

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  • Aikman, David & Kiley, Michael T. & Lee, Seung Jung & Palumbo, Michael G. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2015. "Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2015-59
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.059
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    1. repec:bis:bisifc:45-06 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Murat Cakir, 2017. "A conceptual design of "what and how should a proper macro-prudential policy framework be?" A globalistic approach to systemic risk and procuring the data needed," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Uses of central balance sheet data offices' information, volume 45 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Colleen Baker & Christine Cummings & Julapa Jagtiani, 2017. "The impacts of financial regulations: solvency and liquidity in the post-crisis period," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 253-270, July.
    4. Fischer, Stanley, 2017. "An Assessment of Financial Stability in the United States : a speech at the IMF Workshop on Financial Surveillance and Communication: Best Practices from Latin America, the Caribbean, and Advanced Eco," Speech 960, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. David Aikman & Andreas Lehnert & J. Nellie Liang & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    Keywords

    Early warning system; financial crisis; financial stability; financial vulnerabilities; heat maps; macroprudential policy; systemic risk; data visualization; countercyclical capital buffers;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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