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Assessing and combining financial conditions indexes

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We evaluate the short horizon predictive ability of financial conditions indexes for stock returns and macroeconomic variables. We find reliable predictability only when the sample includes the 2008 financial crisis, and we argue that this result is driven by tailoring the indexes to the crisis and by non-synchronous trading. Financial conditions indexes are based on a variety of constituent variables and aggregation methods, and we discuss a simple procedure for consolidating the growing number of different indexes into a single proxy for financial conditions.

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  • Sirio Aramonte & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2013. "Assessing and combining financial conditions indexes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-39
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    2. Adamantios Ntakaris & Martin Magris & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2017. "Benchmark Dataset for Mid-Price Forecasting of Limit Order Book Data with Machine Learning Methods," Papers 1705.03233, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    3. David Aikman & Andreas Lehnert & Nellie Liang & Michele Modungno, 2020. "Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 141-179, June.
    4. Suah, Jing Lian, 2020. "Veiled Expectations: The Heterogeneous Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks at the Sectoral-Level," MPRA Paper 109086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kwark, Noh-Sun & Lee, Changhyun, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of financial conditions on GDP growth in Korea: A quantile regression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 351-369.
    6. Sun, Lixin & Huang, Yuqin, 2016. "Measuring the instability of China's financial system: Indices construction and an early warning system," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-41.
    7. Wang, Bo & Li, Haoran, 2021. "Downside risk, financial conditions and systemic risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Cantelmo & Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2021. "How loose, how tight? A measure of monetary and fiscal stance for the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1536-1556.
    9. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Gregory, Richard Paul, 2021. "What determines Manager and Investor Sentiment?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    12. Kennedy, Mike & Palerm, Angel, 2014. "Emerging market bond spreads: The role of global and domestic factors from 2002 to 2011," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 70-87.
    13. Duo Qin & Sophie van Huellen & Qing Chao Wang & Thanos Moraitis, 2022. "Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, April.
    14. George A. Waters, 2013. "Quantity versus Price Rationing of Credit: An Empirical Test," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(3), pages 1-9, July.
    15. Duo Qin & Qingchao Wang, 2016. "Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA," Working Papers 201, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.

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