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Assessing and Combining Financial Conditions Indexes

Author

Listed:
  • Sirio Aramonte

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Samuel Rosen

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Kenan-Flagler Business School)

  • John W. Schindler

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

We evaluate the short-horizon predictive ability of financial conditions indexes for stock returns and macroeconomic variables. We find reliable predictability only when the sample includes the 2008 financial crisis, and we argue that this result is driven by tailoring the indexes to the crisis and by nonsynchronous trading. In addition, we suggest a simple procedure for aggregating the various indexes into a single proxy for financial conditions, which can help to reduce the uncertainty faced by policymakers when monitoring financial conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sirio Aramonte & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2017. "Assessing and Combining Financial Conditions Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 1-52, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2017:q:0:a:1
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    2. Adamantios Ntakaris & Martin Magris & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2017. "Benchmark Dataset for Mid-Price Forecasting of Limit Order Book Data with Machine Learning Methods," Papers 1705.03233, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    3. David Aikman & Andreas Lehnert & Nellie Liang & Michele Modungno, 2020. "Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 141-179, June.
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    6. Sun, Lixin & Huang, Yuqin, 2016. "Measuring the instability of China's financial system: Indices construction and an early warning system," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-41.
    7. Wang, Bo & Li, Haoran, 2021. "Downside risk, financial conditions and systemic risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
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    9. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Gregory, Richard Paul, 2021. "What determines Manager and Investor Sentiment?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    12. Kennedy, Mike & Palerm, Angel, 2014. "Emerging market bond spreads: The role of global and domestic factors from 2002 to 2011," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 70-87.
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    15. Duo Qin & Qingchao Wang, 2016. "Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA," Working Papers 201, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.

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