IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v37y2013i11p4510-4533.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk

Author

Listed:
  • Oet, Mikhail V.
  • Bianco, Timothy
  • Gramlich, Dieter
  • Ong, Stephen J.

Abstract

This paper builds on existing microprudential and macroprudential early warning systems (EWSs) to develop a new, hybrid class of models for systemic risk that incorporates the structural characteristics of the financial system and a feedback amplification mechanism. The models explain financial stress using both public and proprietary supervisory data from systemically important institutions, regressing institutional imbalances using an optimal lag method. The Systemic Assessment of Financial Environment (SAFE) EWS monitors microprudential information from the largest bank holding companies to anticipate the buildup of macroeconomic stresses in the financial markets. To mitigate inherent uncertainty, SAFE develops a set of medium-term forecasting specifications that gives policymakers enough time to take ex-ante policy action and a set of short-term forecasting specifications for verification and adjustment of supervisory actions. This paper highlights the application of these models to stress testing and policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Oet, Mikhail V. & Bianco, Timothy & Gramlich, Dieter & Ong, Stephen J., 2013. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4510-4533.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4510-4533
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.02.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613001040
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.02.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Borbély, Dóra & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2003. "Macroeconomic interval forecasting: the case of assessing the risk of deflation in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1153, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Wesley C. Mitchell, 1923. "Introduction to "Business Cycles and Unemployment"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles and Unemployment, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    4. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2004. "Interbank exposures: an empirical examination of systemic risk in the Belgian banking system," Working Paper Research 43, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    7. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    8. Darryll Hendricks & John Kambhu & Patricia C. Mosser, 2007. "Appendix B: Systemic risk and the financial system (background paper)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Nov), pages 65-80.
    9. Thomas B. King & Daniel A. Nuxoll & Timothy J. Yeager, 2006. "Are the causes of bank distress changing? can researchers keep up?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Jan), pages 57-80.
    10. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 35(Q I), pages 22-43.
    11. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    12. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    14. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    15. Mark Carlson & Kurt Lewis & William Nelson, 2014. "Using Policy Intervention To Identify Financial Stress," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 59-72, January.
    16. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2002. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 521-538, October.
    17. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    18. Peter Winker & Dietmar Maringer, 2004. "Optimal Lag Structure Selection in VEC-Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: New Directions in Macromodelling, pages 213-234, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    19. Gordon W. Davies, 1977. "A Model of the Urban Residential Land and Housing Markets," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(3), pages 393-410, August.
    20. Holmes, James M & Hutton, Patricia A, 1992. "A New Test of Money-Income Causality," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 338-355, August.
    21. Jon Frye & Eduard A. Pelz, 2008. "BankCaR (Bank Capital-at-Risk): a credit risk model for U.S. commercial bank charge-offs," Working Paper Series WP-08-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    22. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Alejandro Gaytán & Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "A Review of the Literature on Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 183, Central Bank of Chile.
    24. Chao, John C. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1999. "Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-271, August.
    25. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q II), pages 5-50.
    27. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 2003. "A new criteria for selecting the optimum lags in Johansen's cointegration technique," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 875-880.
    28. Winker, Peter, 1995. "Identification of multivariate AR-models by threshold accepting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 295-307, September.
    29. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Honohan, Patrick & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2003. "The fiscal cost implications of an accommodating approach to banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1539-1560, August.
    31. Kevin L. Kliesen & Douglas C. Smith, 2010. "Measuring financial market stress," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    32. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
    33. Michiel Bijlsma & Jeroen Klomp & Sijmen Duineveld, 2010. "Systemic risk in the financial sector; a review and synthesis," CPB Document 210, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    34. Timothy Bianco & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "The Cleveland financial stress index," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Mar.
    35. Timothy Cogley, 1999. "Should the Fed take deliberate steps to deflate asset price bubbles?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 42-52.
    36. Michiel Bijlsma & Jeroen Klomp & Sijmen Duineveld, 2010. "Systemic risk in the financial sector; a review and synthesis," CPB Document 210.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    37. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    38. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-30, July.
    39. Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Banking industry volatility and banking crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 351-370, April.
    40. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
    41. Peter Winker, 2000. "Optimized Multivariate Lag Structure Selection," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 87-103, October.
    42. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. "Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128, February.
    43. Claudio Borio & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Assessing the risk of banking crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    44. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1996. "Comment on Interbank Lending and System Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 763-765, November.
    45. Hanssens, Dominique M & Liu, Lon-Mu, 1983. "Lag Specification in Rational Distributed Lag Structural Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 316-325, October.
    46. Julapa Jagtiani & James Kolari & Catharine Lemieux & G. Hwan Shin, 2003. "Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 27(Q III), pages 49-60.
    47. James B. Thomson, 2009. "On systemically important financial institutions and progressive systemic mitigation," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
    48. Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet, 2011. "The structural fragility of financial systems: Analysis and modeling implications for early warning systems," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 270-290, August.
    49. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "Financial stress index: a lens for supervising the financial system," Working Papers (Old Series) 12-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Amanda C. Janosko & Dieter Gramlich & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "Supervising System Stress in Multiple Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    4. Oet, Mikhail V. & Gramlich, Dieter & Sarlin, Peter, 2016. "Evaluating measures of adverse financial conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 234-249.
    5. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2019. "The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    7. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "The Institute of Financial Economics Financial Stress Index (IFEFSI) for Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred, 2023. "Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth," Working Paper Series 2842, European Central Bank.
    9. Diana Zigraiova & Petr Jakubik, 2014. "Systemic Event Prediction by Early Warning System," Working Papers IES 2014/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2014.
    10. Sun, Lixin & Huang, Yuqin, 2016. "Measuring the instability of China's financial system: Indices construction and an early warning system," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-41.
    11. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    12. Polat, Onur & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission mechanisms of financial stress into economic activity in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 395-415.
    13. Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang & E. Katarina Vermann, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 369-398.
    14. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    15. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    16. George Apostolakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2019. "Financial Stability, Monetary Stability and Growth: a PVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 157-178, February.
    17. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    18. Mark Carlson & Kurt Lewis & William Nelson, 2014. "Using Policy Intervention To Identify Financial Stress," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 59-72, January.
    19. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    20. Filippopoulou, Chryssanthi & Galariotis, Emilios & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "An early warning system for predicting systemic banking crises in the Eurozone: A logit regression approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 344-363.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Early warning system; Financial stress index; Microprudential; Macroprudential; Liquidity feedback;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4510-4533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.