SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk
This paper builds on existing microprudential and macroprudential early warning systems (EWSs) to develop a new, hybrid class of models for systemic risk that incorporates the structural characteristics of the financial system and a feedback amplification mechanism. The models explain financial stress using both public and proprietary supervisory data from systemically important institutions, regressing institutional imbalances using an optimal lag method. The Systemic Assessment of Financial Environment (SAFE) EWS monitors microprudential information from the largest bank holding companies to anticipate the buildup of macroeconomic stresses in the financial markets. To mitigate inherent uncertainty, SAFE develops a set of medium-term forecasting specifications that gives policymakers enough time to take ex-ante policy action and a set of short-term forecasting specifications for verification and adjustment of supervisory actions. This paper highlights the application of these models to stress testing and policy.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-50.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007.
"Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity,"
NBER Working Papers
12939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brunnermeier, Markus K & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lasse Heje Pederson & Markus K Brunnermeier, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers dp580, Financial Markets Group.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Market liquidity and funding liquidity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24478, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 22-43.
- Hali J. Edison, 2003.
"Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
- Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Winker, Peter, 1994.
"Identification of multivariate AR-models by threshold accepting,"
Discussion Papers, Series II
224, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
- Winker, Peter, 1995. "Identification of multivariate AR-models by threshold accepting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 295-307, September.
- James B. Thomson, 2009. "On systemically important financial institutions and progressive systemic mitigation," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008.
"This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,"
CEMA Working Papers
595, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 13882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Julapa Jagtiani & James Kolari & Catharine Lemieux & G. Hwan Shin, 2003. "Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 49-60.
- Honohan, Patrick & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2003. "The fiscal cost implications of an accommodating approach to banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1539-1560, August.
- Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2000.
"Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: An Historical Analysis,"
NBER Historical Working Papers
0125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2002. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 521-538, October.
- Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: a historical analysis," Working Papers 2000-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2000. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: An Historical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gordon W. Davies, 1977. "A Model of the Urban Residential Land and Housing Markets," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(3), pages 393-410, August.
- Mikhail V. Oet & Ryan Eiben & Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Stephen J. Ong, 2011.
"The financial stress index: identification of systemic risk conditions,"
1130, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 420, September.
- Darryll Hendricks & John Kambhu & Patricia C. Mosser, 2007. "Appendix B: Systemic risk and the financial system (background paper)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Nov, pages 65-80.
- Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-30, July.
- Rajan, Raghuram G, 1996. "Comment on Interbank Lending and System Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 763-65, November.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
- Alejandro Gaytán & Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "A Review of the Literature on Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 183, Central Bank of Chile.
- Dietmar Maringer & Peter Winker, 2004. "Optimal Lag Structure Selection in VEC-Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 155, Society for Computational Economics.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 2003. "A new criteria for selecting the optimum lags in Johansen's cointegration technique," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 875-880.
- repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
- Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49 Bank for International Settlements.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999.
"The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems,"
14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Timothy Bianco & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "The Cleveland financial stress index," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Mar.
- Hanssens, Dominique M & Liu, Lon-Mu, 1983. "Lag Specification in Rational Distributed Lag Structural Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 316-25, October.
- Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
- Holmes, James M & Hutton, Patricia A, 1992. "A New Test of Money-Income Causality," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 338-55, August.
- Degryse, H.A. & Nguyen, G., 2004.
"Interbank Exposures : An Empirical Examination of Systemic Risk in the Belgian Banking System,"
2004-4, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2004. "Interbank exposures: an empirical examination of systemic risk in the Belgian banking system," Working Paper Research 43, National Bank of Belgium.
- Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Banking industry volatility and banking crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 351-370, April.
- Mark Carlson & Kurt Lewis & William Nelson, 2014.
"Using Policy Intervention To Identify Financial Stress,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 59-72, 01.
- Mark A. Carlson & Kurt F. Lewis & William R. Nelson, 2012. "Using policy intervention to identify financial stress," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,"
Princeton University Press,
edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"Varieties of Crises and Their Dates
[This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly]," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates
- Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
- Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
- Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-28, February.
- Michiel Bijlsma & Jeroen Klomp & Sijmen Duineveld, 2010. "Systemic risk in the financial sector; a review and synthesis," CPB Document 210, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Thomas B. King & Daniel A. Nuxoll & Timothy J. Yeager, 2006.
"Are the causes of bank distress changing? can researchers keep up?,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 57-80.
- Thomas B. King & Timothy J. Yeager, 2004. "Are the causes of bank distress changing? can researchers keep up?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2004-07, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Wesley C. Mitchell, 1923. "Introduction to "Business Cycles and Unemployment"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles and Unemployment, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kevin L. Kliesen & Douglas C. Smith, 2010. "Measuring financial market stress," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Chao, John C. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1999.
"Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-271, August.
- John C. Chao & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1997. "Model Selection in Partially Nonstationary Vector Autoregressive Processes with Reduced Rank Structure," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1155, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4510-4533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.