Optimal Lag Structure Selection in VEC-Models
For modelling economic and financial time series, multivariate linear and nonlinear systems of equations have become a standard tool. These models can also be applied to non-stationary processes. However, the resulting finite-sample estimates may depend strongly on the specification of the model dynamics. We propose a method for automatic identification of the dynamic part of VEC-models. Model selection is based on a modified information criterion. The lag structure of the model is selected according to this objective function allowing for "holes". The resulting complex discrete optimization problem is tackled using a hybrid heuristic combining ideas from threshold accepting and memetic algorithms. We present the algorithm and the results of a simulation study showing the method's performance both with regard to the dynamic structure and the rank selection in the VEC-model. The results indicate that the selection of the cointregation rank might depend strongly on the specification of the dynamic part of the VEC-model
|Date of creation:||11 Aug 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://comp-econ.org/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 2003. "A new criteria for selecting the optimum lags in Johansen's cointegration technique," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 875-880.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & David Hendry, 1999.
"Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1999
314, Society for Computational Economics.
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0411, Econometric Society.
- David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Economics Series Working Papers 3, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Ahking, Francis W., 2002. "Model mis-specification and Johansen's co-integration analysis: an application to the US money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 51-66, March.
- Omtzigt Pieter, 2002. "Automatic identification and restriction of the cointegration space," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0213, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:2:p:163-85 is not listed on IDEAS
- Johansen, S., 1991.
"Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend,"
76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Julia Campos & David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Consistent Model Selection by an Automatic "Gets" Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 803-819, December.
- Winker, Peter, 1994.
"Identification of multivariate AR-models by threshold accepting,"
Discussion Papers, Series II
224, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
- Winker, Peter, 1995. "Identification of multivariate AR-models by threshold accepting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 295-307, September.
- Ralf Brüggemann & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2003.
"Comparison of Model Reduction Methods for VAR Processes,"
2003-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & Ralf BrÃƒÂ¼ggemann, 2003. "Comparison of Model Reduction Methods for VAR Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-W13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Ralf BRUEGGEMANN & Hans-Martin KROLZIG & Helmut LUETKEPOHL, 2002. "Comparison of Model Reduction Methods for VAR Processes," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/19, European University Institute.
- Brüggemann, Ralf & Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Comparison of model reduction methods for VAR processes," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,80, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Chao, John C. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1999.
"Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-271, August.
- John C. Chao & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1997. "Model Selection in Partially Nonstationary Vector Autoregressive Processes with Reduced Rank Structure," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1155, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Jesus Gonzalo & Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2001.
"Lag Length Estimation in Large Dimensional Systems,"
- Jesus Gonzalo & Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2001. "Lag Length Estimation in Large Dimensional Systems," Econometrics 0108002, EconWPA.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Bewley, R. & Yang, M., 1996.
"On the Size and Power of System Tests for Cointegration,"
96/9, New South Wales - School of Economics.
- Ronald Bewley & Minxian Yang, 1998. "On The Size And Power Of System Tests For Cointegration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 675-679, November.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
- Peter Winker, 2000. "Optimized Multivariate Lag Structure Selection," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 87-103, October.
- Gredenhoff, Mikael & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Lag-length Selection in VAR-models Using Equal and Unequal Lag-Length Procedures," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 177, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Pötscher, B.M., 1991. "Effects of Model Selection on Inference," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 163-185, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.