IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedcwp/1129.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy Bianco
  • Ryan Eiben
  • Dieter Gramlich
  • Mikhail V. Oet
  • Stephen J. Ong
  • Jing Wang

Abstract

This paper builds on existing microprudential and macroprudential early warning systems (EWSs) to develop a new, hybrid class of models for systemic risk, incorporating the structural characteristics of the fi nancial system and a feedback amplification mechanism. The models explain fi nancial stress using both public and proprietary supervisory data from systemically important institutions, regressing institutional imbalances using an optimal lag method. The Systemic Assessment of Financial Environment (SAFE) EWS monitors microprudential information from the largest bank holding companies to anticipate the buildup of macroeconomic stresses in the financial markets. To mitigate inherent uncertainty, SAFE develops a set of medium-term forecasting specifi cations that gives policymakers enough time to take ex-ante policy action and a set of short-term forecasting specifications for verification and adjustment of supervisory actions. This paper highlights the application of these models to stress testing, scenario analysis, and policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Bianco & Ryan Eiben & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong & Jing Wang, 2011. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Working Papers (Old Series) 1129, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/Newsroom%20and%20Events/Publications/Working%20Papers/~/media/611D6B7ECD8B4E64A0CF970DCB58A101.ashx
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Honohan, Patrick & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2003. "The fiscal cost implications of an accommodating approach to banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1539-1560, August.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2002. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 521-538, October.
    5. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    6. Mark Carlson & Kurt Lewis & William Nelson, 2014. "Using Policy Intervention To Identify Financial Stress," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 59-72, January.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    8. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    9. Wesley C. Mitchell, 1923. "Introduction to "Business Cycles and Unemployment"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles and Unemployment, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    11. Thomas B. King & Daniel A. Nuxoll & Timothy J. Yeager, 2006. "Are the causes of bank distress changing? can researchers keep up?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Jan), pages 57-80.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    14. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-30, July.
    15. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2004. "Interbank exposures: an empirical examination of systemic risk in the Belgian banking system," Working Paper Research 43, National Bank of Belgium.
    16. Gordon W. Davies, 1977. "A Model of the Urban Residential Land and Housing Markets," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(3), pages 393-410, August.
    17. Holmes, James M & Hutton, Patricia A, 1992. "A New Test of Money-Income Causality," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 338-355, August.
    18. Dietmar Maringer & Peter Winker, 2004. "Optimal Lag Structure Selection in VEC-Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 155, Society for Computational Economics.
    19. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Banking industry volatility and banking crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 351-370, April.
    21. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
    22. Alejandro Gaytán & Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "A Review of the Literature on Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 183, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Chao, John C. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1999. "Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-271, August.
    24. Darryll Hendricks & John Kambhu & Patricia C. Mosser, 2007. "Appendix B: Systemic risk and the financial system (background paper)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Nov), pages 65-80.
    25. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. "Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128, February.
    27. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 35(Q I), pages 22-43.
    28. Claudio Borio & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Assessing the risk of banking crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    29. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q II), pages 5-50.
    30. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    31. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1996. "Comment on Interbank Lending and System Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 763-765, November.
    32. Hanssens, Dominique M & Liu, Lon-Mu, 1983. "Lag Specification in Rational Distributed Lag Structural Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 316-325, October.
    33. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    35. Kevin L. Kliesen & Douglas C. Smith, 2010. "Measuring financial market stress," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    36. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
    37. Julapa Jagtiani & James Kolari & Catharine Lemieux & G. Hwan Shin, 2003. "Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 27(Q III), pages 49-60.
    38. James B. Thomson, 2009. "On systemically important financial institutions and progressive systemic mitigation," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
    39. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 2003. "A new criteria for selecting the optimum lags in Johansen's cointegration technique," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 875-880.
    40. Michiel Bijlsma & Jeroen Klomp & Sijmen Duineveld, 2010. "Systemic risk in the financial sector; a review and synthesis," CPB Document 210, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    41. Winker, Peter, 1995. "Identification of multivariate AR-models by threshold accepting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 295-307, September.
    42. Timothy Bianco & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "The Cleveland financial stress index," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Mar.
    43. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mirjana Jemović & Srđan Marinković, 2021. "Determinants of financial crises—An early warning system based on panel logit regression," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 103-117, January.
    2. Aikman, David & Kiley, Michael & Lee, Seung Jung & Palumbo, Michael G. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2017. "Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 36-64.
    3. Vdovychenko, Artem & Oros, Galyna, 2014. "Financial stress index: estimation and application in empirical researches in Ukraine," MPRA Paper 69337, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Di Gangi, Domenico & Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide, 2018. "Assessing systemic risk due to fire sales spillover through maximum entropy network reconstruction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 117-141.
    5. Firano, Zakaria & Filali adib, Fatine, 2018. "Prevision des difficultes bancaires : un modele d'alerte precoce pour le cas du maroc [Prediction of banking difficulties: an early warning model for moroccan banking system]," MPRA Paper 95165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Constantin, Andreea & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2018. "Network linkages to predict bank distress," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 226-241.
    7. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn, 2014. "Does linkage fuel the fire? The transmission of financial stress across the markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 57-70.
    8. Huotari, Jarkko, 2015. "Measuring financial stress – A country specific stress index for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 7/2015, Bank of Finland.
    9. Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
    10. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter & Piloiu, Andreea, 2015. "Network linkages to predict bank distress," Working Paper Series 1828, European Central Bank.
    11. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    12. Filippopoulou, Chryssanthi & Galariotis, Emilios & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "An early warning system for predicting systemic banking crises in the Eurozone: A logit regression approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 344-363.
    13. Mpho Bosupeng, 2018. "Leading Indicators and Financial Crisis: A Multi-Sectoral Approach Using Signal Extraction," Journal of Empirical Studies, Conscientia Beam, vol. 5(1), pages 20-44.
    14. Mariña Martínez-Malvar & Laura Baselga-Pascual, 2020. "Bank Risk Determinants in Latin America," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(3), pages 1-20, September.
    15. Corsi, Fulvio & Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide & Trapin, Luca, 2018. "Measuring the propagation of financial distress with Granger-causality tail risk networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-36.
    16. Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi & Devi Datt Tewari, 2021. "An Early Warning Signal (EWS) Model for Predicting Financial Crisis in Emerging African Economies," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(1), pages 101-110, January.
    17. Suss, Joel & Treitel, Henry, 2019. "Predicting bank distress in the UK with machine learning," Bank of England working papers 831, Bank of England.
    18. Domenico Di Gangi & Fabrizio Lillo & Davide Pirino, 2015. "Assessing systemic risk due to fire sales spillover through maximum entropy network reconstruction," Papers 1509.00607, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    19. Oet, Mikhail V. & Gramlich, Dieter & Sarlin, Peter, 2016. "Evaluating measures of adverse financial conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 234-249.
    20. Irma Alonso & Luis Molina, 2021. "A GPS navigator to monitor risks in emerging economies: the vulnerability dashboard," Occasional Papers 2111, Banco de España.
    21. Helene Olsen & Harald Wieslander, 2020. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Leading Variables for Financial Stability in Norway," Working Papers No 02/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    22. Jian Min & Jiaojiao Zhu & Jian-Bo Yang, 2020. "The Risk Monitoring of the Financial Ecological Environment in Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment Based on a Complex Network," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(22), pages 1-26, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "Financial stress index: a lens for supervising the financial system," Working Papers (Old Series) 1237, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Oet, Mikhail V. & Gramlich, Dieter & Sarlin, Peter, 2016. "Evaluating measures of adverse financial conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 234-249.
    4. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2019. "The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Sun, Lixin & Huang, Yuqin, 2016. "Measuring the instability of China's financial system: Indices construction and an early warning system," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 10, pages 1-41.
    6. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    7. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    8. Lainà, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 18-35.
    9. Tölö, Eero, 2020. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    10. Diana Zigraiova & Petr Jakubik, 2014. "Systemic Event Prediction by Early Warning System," Working Papers IES 2014/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2014.
    11. Filippopoulou, Chryssanthi & Galariotis, Emilios & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "An early warning system for predicting systemic banking crises in the Eurozone: A logit regression approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 344-363.
    12. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal, 2020. "The impact of Israeli Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market: A Destabilizer Multiplier," MPRA Paper 99376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang & E. Katarina Vermann, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 369-398.
    14. Gallegati, Marco & Delli Gatti, Domenico, 2018. "Macrofinancial imbalances in historical perspective: A global crisis index," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 190-205.
    15. Nyholm, Juho & Voutilainen, Ville, 2021. "Quantiles of growth: Household debt and growth vulnerabilities in Finland," BoF Economics Review 2/2021, Bank of Finland.
    16. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    17. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    18. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2021. "Forecasting financial vulnerability in the USA: A factor model approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 439-457, April.
    19. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    20. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2017. "Bank liquidity creation, monetary policy, and financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 139-155.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Liquidity (Economics);

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.