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Are the causes of bank distress changing? can researchers keep up?

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  • Thomas B. King
  • Timothy J. Yeager

Abstract

Since 1990, the banking sector has experienced enormous legislative, technological and financial changes, yet research into the causes of bank distress has slowed. One consequence is that current supervisory surveillance models may no longer accurately represent the banking environment. After reviewing the history of these models, we provide empirical evidence that the characteristics of failing banks has changed in the last ten years and argue that the time is right for new research employing new empirical techniques. In particular, dynamic models that utilize forward-looking variables and address various types of bank risk individually are promising lines of inquiry. Supervisory agencies have begun to move in these directions, and we describe several examples of this new generation of early-warning models that are not yet widely known among academic banking economists.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas B. King & Timothy J. Yeager, 2004. "Are the causes of bank distress changing? can researchers keep up?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2004-07, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlsp:2004-07
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    Cited by:

    1. Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Zhang, Gaiyan & Zhang, Sanjian Bill, 2016. "CDS pricing and accounting disclosures: Evidence from U.S. bank holding corporations around the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 33-44.
    2. Iftekhar Hasan & Liuling Liu & Gaiyan Zhang, 2016. "The Determinants of Global Bank Credit-Default-Swap Spreads," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 275-309, December.
    3. Verónica Vallés & Christian Weistroffer, 2010. "Monitoring banking sector risks: an applied approach," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    4. Miller, Scott & Olson, Eric & Yeager, Timothy J., 2015. "The relative contributions of equity and subordinated debt signals as predictors of bank distress during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 118-137.
    5. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
    6. repec:prg:jnlpol:v:2017:y:2017:i:3:id:1143:p:267-286 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
    8. Oet, Mikhail V. & Bianco, Timothy & Gramlich, Dieter & Ong, Stephen J., 2013. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4510-4533.
    9. Sven Blank & Jonas Dovern, 2010. "What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system?: Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 126-148, June.
    10. Cole, Rebel A. & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Is hazard or probit more accurate in predicting financial distress? Evidence from U.S. bank failures," MPRA Paper 24688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2010.
    11. De Graeve, Ferre & Kick, Thomas, 2008. "Monetary policy and bank distress: an integrated micro-macro approach," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Hong, Han & Huang, Jing-Zhi & Wu, Deming, 2014. "The information content of Basel III liquidity risk measures," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 91-111.
    13. Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Cihak, 2009. "Distress in European Banks; An Analysis Basedon a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 09/9, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Bos, J.W.B. & Koetter, M. & Kolari, J.W. & Kool, C.J.M., 2009. "Effects of heterogeneity on bank efficiency scores," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 251-261, May.
    15. repec:rss:jnljef:v2i4p2 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Henrik Andersen, 2008. "Failure prediction of Norwegian banks: A Logit approach," Working Paper 2008/02, Norges Bank.
    17. Dunn, Jessica Kay & Intintoli, Vincent J. & McNutt, Jamie John, 2015. "An examination of non-government-assisted US commercial bank mergers during the financial crisis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 16-41.
    18. Duran, Miguel A. & Lozano-Vivas, Ana, 2014. "Risk shifting in the US banking system: An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 64-74.

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    Keywords

    Bank failures ; Bank supervision;

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