IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bam/wpaper/bafes12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

To Be Bailed Out or To Be Left to Fail? A Dynamic Competing Risks Hazard Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos I. Papanikolaou

    () (Bournemouth University)

Abstract

During the late 2000s financial crisis, a large number of banks either failed or received financial aid thus inflicting substantial losses on the system. We contribute to the early warning literature by developing a dynamic competing risks hazard model that explores the joint determination of the probability of a distressed bank to face a licence withdrawal or to be bailed out. The underlying patterns of distress are analysed based on a broad range of bank-level and environmental factors. We find that institutions with inadequate capital, illiquid and risky assets, poor management, low levels of earnings and high sensitivity to market conditions have a higher probability to go bankrupt. Bailed out banks, on the other hand, face both capital and liquidity shortages, experience low earnings, and are highly exposed to market products; however, neither managerial expertise, nor the quality of assets are relevant to the odds of bailout. We further document that large and complex banks are less likely to fail and more likely to be bailed out and that authorities are more prone to provide support to a distressed bank, which is well-connected with politicians and political parties and less prone to let it go bankrupt. Importantly, our model outperforms the commonly used logit model in terms of forecasting accuracy in all the in- and out-of-sample tests we conduct.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos I. Papanikolaou, 2017. "To Be Bailed Out or To Be Left to Fail? A Dynamic Competing Risks Hazard Analysis," BAFES Working Papers BAFES12, Department of Accounting, Finance & Economic, Bournemouth University.
  • Handle: RePEc:bam:wpaper:bafes12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.bmth.ac.uk/bam/wp/BAFES12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chaffai, Mohamed & Dietsch, Michel, 2015. "Modelling and measuring business risk and the resiliency of retail banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 173-182.
    2. Stojanovic, Dusan & Vaughan, Mark D. & Yeager, Timothy J., 2008. "Do Federal Home Loan Bank membership and advances increase bank risk-taking?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 680-698, May.
    3. van Oordt, Maarten R.C., 2014. "Securitization and the dark side of diversification," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 214-231.
    4. Charles W. Calomiris & Urooj Khan, 2015. "An Assessment of TARP Assistance to Financial Institutions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 53-80, Spring.
    5. Berger, Allen N. & Humphrey, David B., 1997. "Efficiency of financial institutions: International survey and directions for future research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 175-212, April.
    6. Lepetit, Laetitia & Nys, Emmanuelle & Rous, Philippe & Tarazi, Amine, 2008. "Bank income structure and risk: An empirical analysis of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1452-1467, August.
    7. Goodhart, Charles A.E. & Huang, Haizhou, 2005. "The lender of last resort," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1059-1082, May.
    8. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 68-83, April.
    9. Duchin, Ran & Sosyura, Denis, 2014. "Safer ratios, riskier portfolios: Banks׳ response to government aid," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-28.
    10. Huong Le & Rajesh Narayanan & Lai Vo, 2016. "Has the Effect of Asset Securitization on Bank Risk Taking Behavior Changed?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 39-64, February.
    11. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
    12. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    13. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2015. "Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: A refinement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 214-224.
    14. Sudheer Chava & Robert A. Jarrow, 2008. "Bankruptcy Prediction with Industry Effects," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 21, pages 517-549 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Blau, Benjamin M. & Brough, Tyler J. & Thomas, Diana W., 2013. "Corporate lobbying, political connections, and the bailout of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3007-3017.
    16. Vašíček, Bořek & Žigraiová, Diana & Hoeberichts, Marco & Vermeulen, Robert & Šmídková, Kateřina & de Haan, Jakob, 2017. "Leading indicators of financial stress: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 240-257.
    17. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
    18. Ioannidis, Christos & Pasiouras, Fotios & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2010. "Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 345-357, October.
    19. Raffaella Calabrese & Silvia Angela Osmetti, 2013. "Modelling small and medium enterprise loan defaults as rare events: the generalized extreme value regression model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(6), pages 1172-1188, June.
    20. Barbara Casu & Claudia Girardone, 2005. "An analysis of the relevance of off-balance sheet items in explaining productivity change in European banking," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1053-1061.
    21. Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1975. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 21-36, March.
    22. Croci, Ettore & Hertig, Gerard & Nowak, Eric, 2016. "Decision-making during the credit crisis: Did the Treasury let commercial banks fail?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 476-497.
    23. Battaglia, Francesca & Gallo, Angela, 2013. "Securitization and systemic risk: An empirical investigation on Italian banks over the financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 274-286.
    24. Brei, Michael & Gambacorta, Leonardo & von Peter, Goetz, 2013. "Rescue packages and bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 490-505.
    25. Dawood, Mary & Horsewood, Nicholas & Strobel, Frank, 2017. "Predicting sovereign debt crises: An Early Warning System approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 16-28.
    26. Crowley, Frederick D. & L. Loviscek, Anthony, 1990. "New directions in predicting bank failures: The case of small banks," North American Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 145-162.
    27. Rogers, Kevin & SinkeyJr., Joseph F., 1999. "An analysis of nontraditional activities at U.S. commercial banks," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 25-39, June.
    28. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    29. Wenling Lu & David A. Whidbee, 2013. "Bank structure and failure during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 281-299, June.
    30. Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
    31. Berger, Allen N. & Humphrey, David B., 1991. "The dominance of inefficiencies over scale and product mix economies in banking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 117-148, August.
    32. Isabelle Distinguin & Iftekhar Hasan & Amine Tarazi, 2013. "Predicting rating changes for banks: how accurate are accounting and stock market indicators?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 471-500, August.
    33. Allen N. Berger & Björn Imbierowicz & Christian Rauch, 2016. "The Roles of Corporate Governance in Bank Failures during the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 729-770, June.
    34. Fiordelisi, Franco & Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2013. "Probability of default and efficiency in cooperative banking," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 30-45.
    35. Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-868, September.
    36. Köhler, Matthias, 2015. "Which banks are more risky? The impact of business models on bank stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 195-212.
    37. Wheelock, David C & Wilson, Paul W, 1995. "Explaining Bank Failures: Deposit Insurance, Regulation, and Efficiency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(4), pages 689-700, November.
    38. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31.
    39. De Jonghe, Olivier, 2010. "Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 387-417, July.
    40. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    41. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    42. Arena, Marco, 2008. "Bank failures and bank fundamentals: A comparative analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the nineties using bank-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 299-310, February.
    43. Raymond A.K. Cox & Grace W.-Y. Wang, 2014. "Predicting the US bank failure: A discriminant analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 202-211.
    44. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010. "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
    45. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    46. Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April.
    47. Hakenes, Hendrik & Schnabel, Isabel, 2010. "Banks without parachutes: Competitive effects of government bail-out policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 156-168, September.
    48. Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
    49. Huong Thi Thu Le & Rajesh P. Narayanan & Lai Vo, 2016. "Has the Effect of Asset Securitization on Bank Risk Taking Behavior Changed?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 39-64, February.
    50. Pettway, Richard H & Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1980. " Establishing On-Site Bank Examination Priorities: An Early-Warning System Using Accounting and Market Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 137-150, March.
    51. Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Robert Prilmeier & René M. Stulz, 2012. "This Time Is the Same: Using Bank Performance in 1998 to Explain Bank Performance during the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2139-2185, December.
    52. Rebel Cole & Lawrence White, 2012. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 5-29, October.
    53. Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Čihak, 2011. "Determinants of Bank Distress in Europe: Evidence from a New Data Set," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 163-184, December.
    54. Jin, Justin Yiqiang & Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Lobo, Gerald J., 2011. "Ability of accounting and audit quality variables to predict bank failure during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2811-2819, November.
    55. Craig O. Brown & I. Serdar Dinç, 2011. "Too Many to Fail? Evidence of Regulatory Forbearance When the Banking Sector Is Weak," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(4), pages 1378-1405.
    56. Espahbodi, Pouran, 1991. "Identification of problem banks and binary choice models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 53-71, February.
    57. Lang, Michael & Schmidt, Paul G., 2016. "The early warnings of banking crises: Interaction of broad liquidity and demand deposits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-29.
    58. Ignatowski, Magdalena & Korte, Josef & Werger, Charlotte, 2015. "Between capture and discretion - The determinants of distressed bank treatment and expected government support," Working Paper Series 1835, European Central Bank.
    59. Acharya, Viral V. & Schnabl, Philipp & Suarez, Gustavo, 2013. "Securitization without risk transfer," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 515-536.
    60. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    61. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Lev Ratnovski, 2016. "Banking and Trading," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2219-2246.
    62. Canbas, Serpil & Cabuk, Altan & Kilic, Suleyman Bilgin, 2005. "Prediction of commercial bank failure via multivariate statistical analysis of financial structures: The Turkish case," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 528-546, October.
    63. Buchanan, Bonnie G., 2017. "The way we live now: Financialization and securitization," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 663-677.
    64. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2014. "The role of on- and off-balance-sheet leverage of banks in the late 2000s crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 3-22.
    65. Brenda González-Hermosillo & Ceyla Pazarbaşioğlu & Robert Billings, 1997. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Case Study of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 295-314, September.
    66. Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.
    67. James Kolari & Michele Caputo & Drew Wagner, 1996. "Trait Recognition: An Alternative Approach to Early Warning Systems in Commercial Banking," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1415-1434, December.
    68. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
    69. Wenling Lu & David A. Whidbee, 2013. "Bank structure and failure during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 281-299, July.
    70. Raffaella Calabrese & Paolo Giudici, 2015. "Estimating bank default with generalised extreme value regression models," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(11), pages 1783-1792, November.
    71. Deming Wu & Jiawen Yang & Han Hong, 2011. "Securitization and Banks’ Equity Risk," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 95-117, June.
    72. DeYoung, Robert & Torna, Gökhan, 2013. "Nontraditional banking activities and bank failures during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 397-421.
    73. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Li, Lei & Tehranian, Hassan, 2013. "The performance of banks around the receipt and repayment of TARP funds: Over-achievers versus under-achievers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 730-746.
    74. Calabrese, Raffaella & Degl’Innocenti, Marta & Osmetti, Silvia Angela, 2017. "The effectiveness of TARP-CPP on the US banking industry: A new copula-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 1029-1037.
    75. Duchin, Ran & Sosyura, Denis, 2012. "The politics of government investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 24-48.
    76. Li, Lei, 2013. "TARP funds distribution and bank loan supply," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4777-4792.
    77. Robert DeYoung & Iftekhar Hasan & William C. Hunter, 1999. "The Determinants of De Novo Bank Survival," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-066, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    78. Berger, Allen N. & Roman, Raluca A., 2015. "Did TARP Banks Get Competitive Advantages?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(06), pages 1199-1236, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cutura, Jannic Alexander, 2018. "Debt holder monitoring and implicit guarantees: Did the BRRD improve market discipline?," SAFE Working Paper Series 232, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Bailout; Failure; Dynamic competing risks hazard model; Forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bam:wpaper:bafes12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marta Disegna). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bsbouuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.