Estimating Firms’ Vulnerability to Short-Term Financing Shocks: The Case of Foreign Exchange Companies in Pakistan
Using firm-level balance sheet data for 20 of the 24 exchange companies in Pakistan for the period 2006–11, we explore the sources of firms’ vulnerability to short-term financing shocks. Based on the probability estimates of a maximum likelihood binary probit model, this paper shows that the incidence and degree of vulnerability of foreign exchange companies to short-term financing shocks has risen significantly over time. If not managed opportunely, these shocks can cumulate into long-term financing shocks and even lead to corporate failure in the long run. Our regression results show that the corporate managers of these companies cannot ignore macroeconomic factors such as global changes and the macroeconomic environment (inflation and GDP growth) in addition to firm-specific factors (growth opportunities, firm size, permanent earnings, earnings volatility, and working capital management) when managing their firms’ vulnerability to short-term financing shocks.
Volume (Year): 18 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (July-Dec)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Intersection Main Boulevard Phase VI DHA and Burki Road, Lahore|
Phone: (92-42) 6560939
Web page: http://www.lahoreschoolofeconomics.edu.pk/EconomicsJournal/LJEIntro.aspx
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2010.
"Does the currency regime shape unhedged currency exposure?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 760-769, September.
- Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2008. "Does the currency regime shape unhedged currency exposure," Working Papers 08/50, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
- Ajay Shah & Ila Patnaik, 2009. "Does the Currency Regime Shape Unhedged Currency Exposure?," Working Papers id:2049, eSocialSciences.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31.
- West, Robert Craig, 1985. "A factor-analytic approach to bank condition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 253-266, June.
- Kevin Cowan & José De Gregorio & Alejandro Micco & Christopher Neilson, 2008. "Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops, and Sudden Starts," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 5, pages 159-194 Central Bank of Chile.
- Kevin Cowan & Jose De Gregorio & Alejandro Micco & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops and Sudden Starts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 423, Central Bank of Chile.
- Herman Kamil, 2012. "How Do Exchange Rate Regimes Affect Firms' Incentives to Hedge Currency Risk? Micro Evidence for Latin America," IMF Working Papers 12/69, .
- Gerald A. Hanweck, 1977. "Predicting bank failure," Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics 19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Coleen C. Pantalone & Marjorie B. Platt, 1987. "Predicting commercial bank failure since deregulation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 37-47.
- Reynolds, Stephen, et al, 2002. "Forecasting the Probability of Failure of Thailand's Financial Companies in the Asian Financial Crisis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 237-246, October.
- Gregory R. Gajewski, 1989. "Assessing the risk of bank failure," Proceedings 250, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
- Pettway, Richard H & Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1980. " Establishing On-Site Bank Examination Priorities: An Early-Warning System Using Accounting and Market Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 137-150, March.
- Jorge A Chan-Lau & Toni Gravelle, 2005. "The END; A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 05/231, . Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:18:y:2013:i:2:p:147-163. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shahid Salahuddin)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.