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Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops, and Sudden Starts

In: Current Account and External Financing

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Cowan

    (Banco Central de Chile)

  • José De Gregorio

    (Banco Central de Chile)

  • Alejandro Micco

    (Ministerio de Hacienda, Gobierno de Chile)

  • Christopher Neilson

    (Yale University)

Abstract

The recent literature on sudden stops is based on the fact that many emerging market economies experience recurrent and sharp capital account reversals. In this paper we argue, as some recent research has started to emphasize, that more information can be obtained by looking at gross rather than net flows. Economies may be curtailed from international financial markets, resulting in a sudden stop of inflows, but others may be experiencing portfolio shifts that cause sudden start of capital outflows. By looking at gross flows, and comparing emerging markets (EMEs) with developed economies (DEs) we indeed show that there is a variety of experiences that cannot be lumped together. In particular, sudden stop of inflows are as common in DEs as in EMEs, but a key difference is that in the former outflows and inflows are negatively correlated, which dampen the reversal of net flows. We present a model of financial diversification to interpret these results which is consistent with most evidence we report here. l II) could be helpful on this task.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Cowan & José De Gregorio & Alejandro Micco & Christopher Neilson, 2008. "Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops, and Sudden Starts," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 5, pages 159-194, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v12c05pp159-194
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander D. Rothenberg & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 509-524, August.
    2. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
    3. Paolo Mauro & Andrei A Levchenko, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect From Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 06/202, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Velasco, A. & Chang, R., 1998. "The Asian Liquidity Crisis," Working Papers 98-27, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    5. Ricardo Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2005. "A Quantitative Model of Sudden Stops and External Liquidity Management," NBER Working Papers 11293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2006. "The Role of Global Risk Aversion in Explaining Sovereign Spreads," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2006), pages 125-155, August.
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