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Monetary facts revisited

Author

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  • Pavel Gertler
  • Boris Hofmann

Abstract

This paper uses a cross-country database covering 46 economies over the post-war period to revisit two key monetary facts: (i) the long-run link between money growth and inflation and (ii) the link between credit growth and financial crises. The analysis reveals that the former has weakened over time, while the latter has become stronger. Moreover, the money-inflation nexus has been stronger in emerging market economies than in advanced economies, while it is the other way round for the link between credit growth and financial crises. These results suggest that there is an inverse relationship between the two monetary facts. The money-inflation link is weaker in regimes characterised by low inflation and highly liberalised financial systems, while the reverse holds true for the credit-crisis nexus.

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  • Pavel Gertler & Boris Hofmann, 2016. "Monetary facts revisited," BIS Working Papers 566, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:566
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    5. Markus Pasche, 2018. "Money as an Inflationary Phenomenon," Jena Economics Research Papers 2018-11, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    6. Schnabl, Gunther, 2017. "Monetary policy and wandering overinvestment cycles in East Asia and Europe," Working Papers 148, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
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    8. Aaron Mehrotra & Jochen Schanz, 2020. "Financial market development and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 1-18, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Martin Cesnak, 2023. "Decomposition of retail loan growth," Working and Discussion Papers OP 1/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    10. Filardo, Andrew & Genberg, Hans & Hofmann, Boris, 2016. "Monetary analysis and the global financial cycle: An Asian central bank perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-16.
    11. Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Monetary Policy Transmission And Trade-Offs In The United States: Old And New," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/940, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2021. "Money and inflation in inflation-targeting regimes – new evidence from time–frequency analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 17-44, January.
    13. Raffaella Barone & Donato Masciandaro, 2019. "Cryptocurrency or usury? Crime and alternative money laundering techniques," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 233-254, April.
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    15. Markus Pasche, 2018. "Money as an Inflationary Phenomenon," Jena Economic Research Papers 2018-011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    16. Edvinsson, Rodney & Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Does Money Growth Predict Inflation? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions Using Four Centuries of Data," Working Papers 2023:3, Örebro University, School of Business.
    17. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Monetary policy and overinvestment in East Asia and Europe," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 445-462, December.
    18. Andreas Freytag & Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Monetary Policy Crisis Management as a Threat to Economic Order," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 50(2), pages 151-169.
    19. Raffaella Barone & Donato Masciandaro, 2017. "Crime, Money Laundering, And Credit Markets: Can Usury Exist At The Zero Lower Bound?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1761, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    20. Zhang, Xun & He, Zongyue & Zhu, Jiali & Li, Jing, 2018. "Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 129-139.
    21. Hongyi Chen & Michael Funke & Andrew Tsang, 2016. "The Diffusion and Dynamics of Producer Prices, Deflationary Pressure across Asian Countries, and the Role of China," Working Papers 152016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    22. Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Central Banking and Crisis Management from the Perspective of Austrian Business Cycle Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 6179, CESifo.
    23. Aleš Michl, 2019. "Peníze a inflace: ztracená kointegrace [Money and Inflation: Lost Cointegration]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 385-405.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    quantity theory; credit growth; financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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