IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/538.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation

Author

Listed:
  • Boris Hofmann
  • Ilhyock Shim
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

Currency appreciation goes hand in hand with easier financial conditions and compressed sovereign bond spreads, even for local currency sovereign bonds. This yield compression comes from a reduction in the credit risk premium. Crucially, the relevant exchange rate involved in yield compression is the bilateral dollar exchange rate, not the trade-weighted exchange rate. Our findings point to a financial risk-taking channel of currency appreciation associated with the global role of the dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation," BIS Working Papers 538, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:538
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work538.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work538.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:the:publsh:2669 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1013-1028, November.
    3. Du, Wenxin & Schreger, Jesse, 2013. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Plantin, Guillaume & Shin, Hyun Song, 0. "Exchange rates and monetary spillovers," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Ratnovski, Lev, 2014. "Global Liquidity and Drivers of Cross-Border Bank Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 10314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    8. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    9. Viktoria Hnatkovska & Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2016. "The Exchange Rate Response to Monetary Policy Innovations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 137-181, April.
    10. Amstad, Marlene & Remolona, Eli & Shek, Jimmy, 2016. "How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-48.
    11. Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43 Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2015. "Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 508, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    14. Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2014. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: A high frequency exchange rate puzzle in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 69-96.
    15. repec:bis:bisqtr:0212e is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jimmy Shek & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Investor redemptions and fund manager sales of emerging market bonds: how are they related?," BIS Working Papers 509, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Blaise Gadanecz & Ken Miyajima & Chang Shu, 2014. "Exchange rate risk and local currency sovereign bond yields in emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 474, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Maurice Obstfeld, 2015. "Trilemmas and Tradeoffs: Living with Financial Globalization," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.), Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 2, pages 013-078 Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Jesse Schreger & Wenxin Du, 2014. "Sovereign Risk, Currency Risk, and Corporate Balance Sheets," Working Paper 209056, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    20. Iva Petrova & Michael G. Papaioannou & Dimitri Bellas, 2010. "Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads; Fundamentals vs Financial Stress," IMF Working Papers 10/281, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José María Serena & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment?," BIS Working Papers 624, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. repec:the:publsh:2669 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Philip Turner, 2016. "Macroprudential policies, the long-term interest rate and the exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 588, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Stefan Avdjiev & Valentina Bruno & Catherine Koch, 2018. "The dollar exchange rate as a global risk factor: evidence from investment," BIS Working Papers 695, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Enisse Kharroubi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Monetary independence in a financially integrated world: what do measures of interest rate co-movement tell us?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 193-205 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Hakan Kara, 2016. "A brief assessment of Turkey's macroprudential policy approach : 2011–2015," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 16(3), pages 85-92.
    7. Arteta,Carlos & Kose,Ayhan & Stocker,Marc & Taskin,Temel, 2016. "Negative interest rate policies : sources and implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7791, The World Bank.
    8. Hakan Kara, 2016. "Turkey's experience with macroprudential policy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 123-139 Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Pietro Cova & Filippo Natoli, 2017. "International financial flows and the risk-taking channel," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1152, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Michael Chui & Emese Kuruc & Philip Turner, 2016. "A new dimension to currency mismatches in the emerging markets - non-financial companies," BIS Working Papers 550, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Peter Hördahl & Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2016. "Low long-term interest rates as a global phenomenon," BIS Working Papers 574, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Jonathan Kearns & Nikhil Patel, 2016. "Does the financial channel of exchange rates offset the trade channel?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    13. Vladyslav Sushko & Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2016. "The failure of covered interest parity: FX hedging demand and costly balance sheets," BIS Working Papers 590, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Jin Cao & Valeriya Dinger, 2018. "Financial Globalization and Bank Lending: The Limits of Domestic Monetary Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6900, CESifo Group Munich.
    15. Pavel Gertler & Boris Hofmann, 2016. "Monetary facts revisited," BIS Working Papers 566, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Benedicte Vibe Christensen, 2016. "Challenges of low commodity prices for Africa," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 87, November.
    17. Brainard, Lael, 2017. "Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization : a speech at "Normalizing Central Banks' Balance Sheets: What Is the New Normal?" a conference sponsored by Columbia University’s Scho," Speech 963, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Plantin, Guillaume & Shin, Hyun Song, 0. "Exchange rates and monetary spillovers," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
    19. Dietrich Domanski & Emanuel Kohlscheen & Ramon Moreno, 2016. "Foreign exchange market intervention in EMEs: what has changed?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    20. Philip Turner, 2016. "External shocks, the exchange rate and macroprudential policy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 57-62 Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Turalay Kenç, 2016. "Macroprudential regulation: history, theory and policy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 1-15 Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bond spread; capital flow; credit risk; emerging market; exchange rate;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:538. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.