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How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old

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  • Amstad, Marlene
  • Remolona, Eli
  • Shek, Jimmy

Abstract

When global investors go into emerging markets or get out of them, how do they differentiate between economies? Has this behavior changed since the crisis of 2008 to reflect a “new normal”? We consider these questions by focusing on sovereign risk as reflected in monthly returns on credit default swaps (CDS) for 18 emerging markets and 10 developed countries. Tests for breaks in the time series of such returns suggest a new normal that ensued around October 2008 or soon afterwards. Dividing the sample into two periods and extracting risk factors from CDS returns, we find an old normal in which a single global risk factor drives half of the variation in returns and a new normal in which that risk factor becomes even more dominant. Surprisingly, in both the old and new normal, the way countries load on this factor depends not so much on economic fundamentals as on whether they are designated an emerging market.

Suggested Citation

  • Amstad, Marlene & Remolona, Eli & Shek, Jimmy, 2016. "How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-48.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:66:y:2016:i:c:p:32-48
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.12.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:258-269 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    3. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation," BIS Working Papers 538, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. repec:eee:ecolet:v:159:y:2017:i:c:p:74-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Paula Margaretic & Sebastián Becerra, 2017. "Dispersed Information and Sovereign Risk Premia," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 808, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Florian Berg & Paula Margaretic & Sébastien Pouget, 2016. "Sovereign Bond Spreads and Extra-Financial Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Emerging Markets," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 789, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Marlene Amstad & Frank Packer & Jimmy Shek, 2018. "Does Sovereign Risk in Local and Foreign Currency Differ?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:629-639 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ludovit Odor & Pavol Povala, 2016. "Risk Premiums in Slovak Government Bonds," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 3/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    10. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2017. "Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: Do global factors matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 629-639.
    11. Özmen, Erdal & Doğanay Yaşar, Özge, 2016. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads, credit ratings and global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 93-101.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging market; CDS; Sovereign risk; Risk factor; New normal; Taper tantrum;

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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